Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition was on track for a decisive win in Bihar, a key state election widely viewed as a major test of his political strength in one of India’s poorest but most influential regions.

Early results released Friday by the Election Commission of India show the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) heading toward 208 seats in the 243-member state assembly. A party or alliance needs 122 seats to form government. The BJP alone is projected to claim 95 seats.

Bihar, home to nearly 130 million people, plays a crucial role in national politics as it sends the fourth-largest bloc of lawmakers to India’s lower house of parliament. The state is also considered a bellwether across the Hindi-speaking belt.

This year’s two-phase election unfolded amid public concerns over unemployment, security issues and complaints about voter list revisions. Campaigns by both the government and opposition were marked by large rallies and intensive voter outreach.

With the NDA leading in early counting, supporters celebrated across Patna with flags, music and firecrackers.

A win in Bihar is expected to bolster Modi as he prepares for the 2029 national elections and major state polls in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Assam. Analysts say the victory will also give stability to the federal coalition, which has relied on regional allies since losing its outright parliamentary majority last year.

n Bihar, the BJP partners with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas). Kumar, 74, has led the state for almost 20 years and is credited with improving infrastructure and restoring public order. Once a critic of Modi, he later returned to the NDA fold.

Observers had warned that a defeat in Bihar could weaken Kumar’s party and threaten the central coalition, which depends on his 12 lawmakers.