Simon Mohsin

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) concluded its sixth Summit in Thailand on 4 April, marking a significant transition as Bangladesh assumed the group's chairmanship for the next two years. Under Bangladesh's leadership, Prof. Yunus outlined several key priorities for BIMSTEC's future direction. Chief among these is accelerating the implementation of the BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which is seen as crucial for boosting intra-regional commerce and economic integration. Another primary focus will be executing the BIMSTEC Master Plan on Transport Connectivity, which aims to enhance physical infrastructure and trade links across member states. On regional stability, Prof. Yunus emphasised the need for proactive engagement with Myanmar to address the Rohingya crisis and create conditions for safe repatriation.

The Summit also saw significant sideline diplomacy, including discussions between Prof. Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that hinted at potential bilateral collaborations. However, the grouping continues to face substantial challenges, including persistent trade barriers, geopolitical tensions among members and uneven economic development that test BIMSTEC's cohesion and effectiveness.

The 6th BIMSTEC Summit achieved some progress in regional cooperation by adopting the "Bangkok Vision 2030" - a comprehensive roadmap to develop a Prosperous, Resilient and Open BIMSTEC by 2030. Key accomplishments included strides in economic integration, with member states committing to accelerate negotiations for the long-pending BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to boost intra-regional trade. Thailand highlighted critical connectivity projects, including the Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement and its ambitious Land Bridge initiative, which links the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Thailand. Regarding resilience building, leaders agreed to establish specialised institutions like the BIMSTEC Tropical Medicine Excellence Center. They supported India's proposal for a Disaster Management Center to address climate challenges and health crises. Security cooperation advanced through reinforced commitments to combat transnational crimes under the BIMSTEC Convention on Counter-Terrorism and Drug Trafficking. The Summit also emphasised private sector engagement through the proposed BIMSTEC Business Advisory Council and youth participation via the Young Gen Forum while promoting cultural ties through enhanced tourism connectivity.

With a combined GDP between $3.6 trillion and $4.7 trillion and a population of 1.8 billion, BIMSTEC represents one of the world's most dynamic yet underutilised economic corridors. The grouping's geographic positioning across the Bay Bengal littoral gives it unique potential to bridge South and Southeast Asia – regions historically divided by political and economic barriers. However, intra-BIMSTEC trade remains alarmingly low at under 5% of total trade volume, hampered by inadequate infrastructure, non-tariff barriers, and the long-pending FTA.

The current Summit presents a critical opportunity to address these challenges, mainly through key infrastructure projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Highway and Kaladan Multimodal Transport Project that could transform regional connectivity.

BIMSTEC's vision revolves around enhancing physical, digital and maritime connectivity to foster regional integration. However, progress has been hindered by uneven port infrastructure and regulatory disparities. Similarly, while initiatives like the BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity show promise, the persistent digital divide among members underscores the need for coordinated investment in technological capacity building. These connectivity challenges mirror broader regional disparities that BIMSTEC must address to fulfil its potential as an economic and strategic bridge.

For BIMSTEC to evolve into an effective regional bloc, it must overcome significant structural and geopolitical hurdles, and display unwavering political will from all stakeholders. Unlike ASEAN's robust institutional framework, BIMSTEC has struggled with divergent national interests and lacks dedicated funding mechanisms. The organisation's narrow focus on technical cooperation has limited its ability to address pressing non-traditional security threats like climate change and human trafficking.

Geopolitical competition continues to intensify in the Indo-Pacific. BIMSTEC's ability to transform these challenges into opportunities will determine whether it can genuinely connect South and Southeast Asia in meaningful, transformative ways.

The bilateral meeting between Prof. Yunus and Indian PM Modi on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC Summit marks a critical juncture in Dhaka-Delhi relations, coming at a time of heightened tensions between the two neighbours. The discussions—covering sensitive issues such as Sheikh Hasina's extradition, Teesta water sharing, and border killings—represent the first high-level diplomatic engagement since Bangladesh's political upheaval in July 2024 and Hasina's subsequent exile in India. The meeting's significance is amplified by Bangladesh's growing frustration over India's sheltering of the ousted leader, which has fuelled anti-India sentiment in Dhaka, as well as Delhi's concerns about the treatment of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh.

However, the encounter also carries deeper geopolitical undertones, particularly in light of Prof. Yunus's recent visit to China—a move many interpret as Bangladesh's effort to diversify its foreign policy amid strained ties with India. For New Delhi, the BIMSTEC engagement offered an opportunity to recalibrate its approach, ensuring it does not cede strategic ground to Beijing in a traditionally India-friendly neighbour. Modi's willingness to discuss contentious issues suggests recognition that prolonged tensions could push Dhaka further into China's orbit, jeopardising India's regional influence.

If both sides can compartmentalise political disagreements while advancing pragmatic cooperation on connectivity, trade, and security, BIMSTEC could emerge as a stabilising platform. However, failure to address core grievances risks deepening mistrust, which could have broader implications for regional stability and the balance of power in the Bay of Bengal.

As Bangladesh assumes BIMSTEC's chairmanship, its ability to navigate these diplomatic crosscurrents will test whether the grouping can evolve beyond symbolism into a meaningful forum for conflict management.

The New World Order demands agile regionalism, yet BIMSTEC risks irrelevance if it cannot translate visionary rhetoric into concrete actions. Learning from ASEAN's integration success while addressing digital divides, security threats and green transition imperatives could counter the bloc to global instability. However, without urgent reforms like cohesive trade frameworks and infrastructure investments, BIMSTEC may remain a promise unfulfilled, overshadowed by the very geopolitical rivalries it seeks to navigate. The following two years under Bangladesh's leadership will test whether this diverse grouping can evolve from a dialogue forum into a force for tangible progress.

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The writer is a political and international affairs analyst