Mahfuzur Rahman

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu had his third visit to Bangladesh on 14-15 May 2024. Diplomatic visits are always considered an indication of the future course of relations. Donald Lu’s visit to Dhaka at this particular point of time definitely demands a close scrutiny on many counts.

Bangladesh is on the verge of preparing itself for the two very important and crucial highest-level visits to two emerging global powerhouses, India and China. Enthusiasts are eager to see how Bangladesh balances its discourse with these two giants.

On one hand, a visit to India is considered a natural outcome, as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for the fourth time in January this year, and for which many believe that India’s firm support played a significant role, particularly in quashing the West’s pressure on the election process in Bangladesh.

On the other hand, her counterpart, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, hopes to occupy the seat for the third time in the coming month. Well, this is not the only challenge that the present government in Bangladesh needs to look at; rather there are risks and challenges gradually looming for the last three years, mainly on the economic front.

Once an example of rapid economic growth, Bangladesh is now suffering from the spill-out effect of the global economic crisis caused by the wars in Ukraine and Palestine, while at the same time dealing with the challenges of maintaining the pace of development. Therefore, Bangladesh cannot shy away from keeping China in humour.

When two forces face off, the presence of a third party can act as a mediating or balancing force. Should we read Donald Lu’s visit in the same way? It would have been good for Bangladesh if such a possibility remained alive. And as such, it is in the interest of Bangladesh that we welcome and nurture that possibility.

In international politics, it is always good if there are more centres of gravity than just one or two. And for a country like Bangladesh, it is valuable and advantageous to keep and generate as many options as possible. It appears from the last visit of Lu that it might take time for things to settle down between Bangladesh and the U.S., and a creative initiative is required to elevate the relations between Bangladesh and the U.S. to a greater height.

If we could recollect, the first visit of Donald Lu to Bangladesh in January 2023 was planned to “meet with senior Bangladeshi officials and civil society leaders to discuss strengthening the bilateral relationship, expand economic engagement and hear Bangladesh’s perspectives on labour and human rights”.

During his recent trip, the ambition was cut down to “discuss U.S.-Bangladesh cooperation, including on addressing the climate crisis and deepening economic ties”. It also matched with his engagements in Dhaka, where he met Environment Minister Saber Hossain Chowdhury and the Prime Minister’s advisor for Private Industry and Investments, though I do not think that those were anything substantive or serious in nature. He probably carefully avoided any direct meetings with the opposition political leaders.

He did not mention the pending defence pacts either. If we sum up everything, his visit cannot be considered a mere routine; rather, it appears that his agenda was totally different. The near future course of action will say exactly what the agenda was and, for that matter, what possibly the U.S. Department of State gained from this visit. I am sure that the U.S. is taking a fresh look at Bangladesh and the region.

It is definitely tailoring its strategy to cope with the warmth between the leaders of both Bangladesh and India and the volatile situation in Bangladesh’s immediate neighbour– Myanmar. And needless to mention, perhaps the U.S. is keen to know the steps taken by China to expand its sphere of influence both globally and regionally, and more so on the outcome of Bangladesh’s forthcoming highest-level visit to China. Donald Lu has an illustrious diplomatic career. He is known to have vast experience in the nuance and style of the region, as he occupied several important positions during his diplomatic career in the region. Therefore, a pragmatic approach from the U.S. is surely expected.
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The writer is a former Ambassador