Mahfuzur Rahman

Civil War is not an unknown term in Myanmar since its independence. The Union of Burma was essentially a union of many ethnic groups that had been living in the territory for thousands of years. Before Myanmar’s independence in 1948, many of these groups used to enjoy substantial freedom, thanks to their diverse culture, political practice and more importantly diverse geographic terrain.

The Union of Burma and the modern Myanmar has inherited almost the same borders. It stretches from North to South for more than two-thousand kilometres, whereas horizontally the maximum stretch is limited to one-thousand kilometres. I assume that human settlement, vis-à-vis human character, changes more along the north-south elongation, rather than horizontal elongation.

In the case of Myanmar, the elongation is vertical, perhaps making it difficult to survive. In addition, a mountain range, Arakan Yoma, runs from North to South and along with the Bay of Bengal, defines the Western parameter. A large triangular plateau, the Shan Plateau, makes up the Eastern end of the country.

The main river, the Irrawaddy, runs vertically through the middle of the territory, almost parallel to Myanmar’s East and West border in the fertile valley that has been created in between the Arakan Yoma and Shan Plateau.

Thousands of years ago, when the Tibetan-Burman Pyu ethnic group migrated to this area, they preferred to live in the fertile Irrawaddy valley. Their successor, the Bamar people then formed formidable Bamar kingdoms in Bagan and Mandalay. People of other ethnic groups mostly lived in neighbouring areas, a majority of them in hilly and mountainous terrains.

The Arakanese was an exception. They lived in plain lands, largely separated from the Irrawaddy valley by Arakan Yoma. There is confusion about the origin of the Rakhine ethnic group. They have similarities with both Tibetan-Bamar and Bengali-Indians. They could be a mixed race from East-Himalayans Shakya dynasty and Magadha region. Debate apart, it is clear that over the years, Arakanese had developed some separate features, both culturally and politically. They were independent and had interaction with the Bengal Sultanate till their fall to the Bamar-led Konbaung dynasty and the subsequent British colonial rule.

Interesting enough, the golden days of Arakan soon vanished after a series of events that saw sheltering Mughal Prince Mirza Shah Shuja, Governor of Bengal and a challenger to the throne of Aurangajeb; betraying and subsequently killing him; sieging by Mughal’s army and finally falling to Konbaung Dynasty. In Patuakhali and Borguna, there are Rakhine settlements who probably migrated there after the annexation of Arakan by the Konbaung dynasty. There are Rakhines in Chittagong Hill Tracts as well but they are known as Marma.

As is evident in the entire Myanmar, there are small but very distinct ethnic groups in all of Shan Plateau. These groups always enjoyed either total independence, in the form of active local control, or large-scale autonomy even after the formation of the Union of Burma. Fights continue with the successive central governments on the questions of the level of autonomy and freedom.

The military governments under General Saw Maung and General Than Shwe were smarter in addressing the issue with their rights, essence and substance. The military rulers offered spaces to the armed ethnic groups and concluded separate truces with as many as twenty-two armed groups giving them substantial autonomy and freedom.

Most of these groups were active in Shan State, followed by Kachin, Kayah, Mon and Rakhine State. Under the agreements, many of these groups were allowed to have their independent army, currency and tax system. In return, they ensured political support to the central government. It was a status quo that somehow worked for everybody. However, the honeymoon did not last forever.

Since 2005, there have been reports of breaches from all sides. As the central government of Myanmar started receiving wide support from the West after the 2005 general elections, its relations with the ethnic groups started deteriorating. With this background, the central government had to sign another ceasefire agreement with the armed ethnic groups in 2015.

This agreement was done under broad daylight and was witnessed by the United Nations, United States, United Kingdom, Norway and Japan. However, things went wrong when the new military government, after the coup of February 2021, reported to move away from the ceasefire. It prompted the ethnic armed groups (EAOs) to walk away from the ceasefire as well and to unite themselves against the government.

Among the EAOs, the Arakan Army of the Rakhine, Ta’Ang National Liberation of Ta’Ang or Palaung ethnic groups; and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army of Chinese Kokang groups formed the Three Brotherhood Alliance. On 27 October 2023, the alliance started offensives against the central government, known as Operation 1027. The recent incident along the Bangladesh border where we witnessed hundreds of border Police of Myanmar entering Bangladesh territory, and the continuous exchange of fire and bombs are just fallouts of these offensives.

Where does now Bangladesh stand? Exactly in between a century-old conflict and an even older chaos. The Rohingya repatriation has been marred with several inconspicuous facades now. On one hand, there is the central government of Myanmar which is a military entity. Then there are the government in exile (National Unity Government), an intimidating ethnic alliance (the Three Brotherhood Alliance which has the Arakan Army in it), the militant Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and the contesting Rohingya Solidarity Organisation. I need to add the global politics where China, the United States and India are formidable players as well.
Do we see any light at the end of the tunnel? Yes, as long as there are around six lakh Rohingyas on the soil of Myanmar.
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The writer is a former Ambassador and can be reached at [email protected]