Wednesday, 6 July, 2022
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IN SPECTRUM

Henry Kissinger’s Prophecy on World War

Dr. Mir Obaidur Rahman

Henry Kissinger’s Prophecy on World War
Dr. Mir Obaidur Rahman

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Many countries of the world are now in the throes of both internal and external conflicts. The two superpowers China and United States are engaged in trade war. The instability in Middle East in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the squally relation between Palestine and Israel, the intervention in Syria by Russia and United Sates, the economic sanction on Iran are some of the major events that the world is observing for the last few years. Brexit dilemma is another discordant episode in the coexistence of Europe and may be a trigger in subsequent upheavals inside United Kingdom and the bilateral relation with many other countries. Another fratricide exercise is between Saudi Arabia and Yemen and in Turkey’s engagement with the Kurdish. There are raging threats between the United States and China on the encroachment in the South China Sea. United Sates’ deviations from China’s self-proclaimed one China policy on Taiwan and the cozy relationship of Taiwan with United States would be a probable geopolitical conflict besides China’s treatment towards the democratic people of Hong Kongand the soft corner of United Sates and the United

Kingdom. 

The Iran and United States are engaged in a series of intimidations when United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCOPA] in May 2018 that bestows Iran genuine legitimacy to uranium enrichment and also Iran threatened to exceed the uranium enrichment limit. The control of Strait of Hormuz is another crucial issue and because of the restraint in the June, 2019 on both sides a cataclysmic event could be averted. Strait of Hormuz is crucial for 30 per cent of the world’s oil supplies and any disruption due to conflict would destabilise the oil prices globally. Thus NATO balked at the request of United States to follow steps and thus a confrontation could trigger an escalation into a full blown war that could threaten the existence of the humankind. The North Korea is indomitable and the 70th anniversary of the statehood is a manifestation of its nuclear power and military might and lack of complacencies both on the part of United States and North Korea may escalate into a wholesale war.

There are many peace loving countries but unfortunately they are entangled into conflict with neighbour by the support and instigation of the major world power who are bent to realise their economic benefit. Bangladesh, a peace loving and a densely populated country with inadequate resources is shouldering the responsibility of a cruel episode and as a surrogate guardian to negotiate with Myanmar government for repatriation of about one million Rohingyas to their own homeland. It is a painful process to address the repatriation issue with the intransigence attitude of the Mynamar government and about one million Rohingyas are now at the mercy of the Bangladesh and the world community. The Babri Masjid issue and the verdict of the Supreme Court of India and the NRC exercise may give rise to tension.

The above are not an exhaustive list of events that may cost the world peace and prosperity in near future. WW III if it occurs would not be on the modalities of WWI or WW II, not be spanning for several years and might not confine in a limited area. The recent prophecy by Henry Kissinger on the stalemate on US-China trade war could lead to “catastrophic outcome that “will be worse than world wars. He warned competition between the world’s two largest economies was “permanent” and that they had to “get used to” the “rivalry” or risk disastrous consequences”. Henry Kissinger who practiced “shuttle diplomacy”to bring peace in Middle East during President Richard Nixon Era is acknowledged as a distinguished Secretary of State. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger engaged in “shuttle diplomacy” after the three weeks of October 1973 Middle East War to lay ground work to resolve the twenty five year conflict between Israel and Egypt and Israel, Syria. The term was coined by the media group to emphasise his short flies among the Middle East Capitals that materialises into two Egyptian-Israeli disengagement agreements and the Syrian-Israeli disengagement.

History dictates that conflicts were “inevitable” among the major superpowers and the world could avert a major disaster during the Cold War through mutual respect and conciliatory approach. A permanent conflict and the boldness on each one’s leaning would be “worse than the world wars that ruined European civilization.”

 

The writer is a Professor of Economics, United International University.  Email: [email protected]