Bangladesh’s fossil fuel emissions surge 50% in a decade

Bangladesh’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels have surged by nearly 50% over the past decade, rising from 77 million tonnes in 2015 to 115.9 million tonnes in 2025, according to a new international study.

The increase comes as global fossil fuel emissions are projected to decline by 0.4% in 2026, driven partly by the rapid expansion of solar and wind power and an energy shock linked to the Iran conflict.

However, researchers warn that the projected decline does not signal a lasting shift in global emissions trends.

The findings were published in the Global Carbon Budget 2026, released on Tuesday. 

Prepared by an international team of more than 140 scientists, the report assesses global carbon emissions, fossil fuel consumption and progress in tackling climate change.

According to the report, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, down 0.4% from the previous year.

However, total global CO2 emissions, including those from land-use changes such as deforestation, are expected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes this year from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.

Researchers said global energy demand continued to grow, but around two-thirds of the additional demand was being met through solar and wind power and electric vehicles.

Despite this progress, clean energy expansion remains insufficient to ensure a sustained decline in fossil fuel emissions.

Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter and lead author of the study, described the projected decline in fossil fuel emissions as encouraging but cautioned that geopolitical disruptions had contributed to the reduction.

He stressed that such declines could not be considered a sustainable climate solution and called for much faster deployment of clean energy technologies to achieve lasting emissions reductions.

The report projects that CO2 emissions from oil will fall by 1.9% in 2026, while those from natural gas will decline by 0.3%. In contrast, coal-related emissions are expected to rise by 0.6%.

Researchers attributed the projected decline in oil-related emissions partly to the energy crisis and market disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.

Meanwhile, the expansion of solar and wind power is playing an increasingly significant role in preventing carbon emissions.

Emissions avoided through solar and wind power increased from 280 million tonnes in 2010 to 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025. The figure is projected to reach 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026.

A separate study published alongside the report in Nature Climate Change estimates that additional solar and wind power and electric vehicles could offset 64% to 79% of emissions associated with new energy demand by the end of 2028.

Country-level projections show that China, which accounts for 32% of global fossil fuel emissions, is expected to record a 0.9% decline in 2026. The country is also the world’s largest deployer of clean energy technologies.

Emissions in the United States and the European Union are projected to fall by 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

In contrast, India’s emissions are expected to increase by 4.4%, exceeding its average annual growth rate of 3.5% over the past decade.

The report also raises concerns about the rapidly shrinking global carbon budget available to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The remaining carbon budget is estimated at just 150 billion tonnes, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at current rates.

Meanwhile, CO2 emissions from land-use changes, including deforestation, are projected to rise to 5.1 billion tonnes in 2026, driven partly by increased peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are also expected to reach 427.7 parts per million (ppm) this year, about 54% above pre-industrial levels.

Researchers said clean energy expansion was helping several countries reduce emissions while maintaining economic growth.

However, they warned that much faster deployment of solar and wind power, batteries and electric vehicles would be needed to achieve a lasting peak and subsequent decline in global emissions.