What Is the Solution to Houthis Question?

All countries involved in the war are affected. Even those not involved in the war are affected in various ways. In the Russia-Ukraine War, food and fuel prices have increased worldwide. Again, during the Iran War, just as the prices of fuel oil and LNG have increased worldwide, shipping systems on sea routes are being disrupted. As a result, these are directly affecting the economies of countries around the world.

The conflict between the United States and Iran has not stopped entirely; the war of words is constantly going on, but at least the direct war has slowed down. The two countries are occasionally holding indirect talks. As a result, the energy market started to be normal. Then the Saudi-Houthi conflict appeared, and everything fell into uncertainty. The Houthis are continuously launching missile attacks inside the territory of Saudi Arabia. There have also been casualties in missile attacks on Riyadh airport. Aramco’s oil facilities and Saudi oil tankers are also the targets of the Houthis’ attacks. On the other hand, Yemeni government forces, with Saudi support, are attacking Houthi hideouts. Again, Saudi forces are also continuing to attack Houthi establishments. In other words, the war has not left the Middle East theatre.

Amid the attacks from the Houthis, Saudi Arabia has activated the collective security clause of the recently signed Makkah Defence Pact to allow both Pakistan and Turkiye to join its flanks.  In addition, Saudi Arabia has called on its close allies, including France, the United States and the United Kingdom, for defence assistance.

The Houthis are backed by Iran. They have fought as proxies on behalf of Iran in the Hamas-Israel War or the United States-Iran War. As a result, Saudi Arabia’s allies are treading cautiously. Though they are otherwise ready to assist Saudi Arabia by all means, none of them wants to trigger Iran by going directly against the Houthis. Donald Trump is primarily concerned about the November midterm elections. At the moment, Republicans have a majority in both houses of Congress. But in November, all seats in Congress and one-third of the Senate will be up for election. The collapse in Donald Trump’s domestic popularity, mainly due to the Iran War, could lead to Republicans losing their majorities in both Congress and the Senate. In that case, Trump may face additional challenges in implementing many future budget and policy decisions. Trump said that the Houthis want to attack Saudi Arabia and raise oil prices, so that could have an impact on the US midterm elections.

If that happens, the Iranians will be the happiest. They will be tempted to use this sort of tactic even more. Since Mohammed bin Salman came to power, significant transformations have been seen in Saudi Arabia. Women are getting the right to vote and to get driving licences. It seemed that Mohammed bin Salman was modern and liberal. He would bring Saudi Arabia out of religious conservatism. He took another daring step. To fight corruption, he even imprisoned many members of the royal family and forced them to bring back money laundered abroad. He planned ambitious construction. He helped build infrastructure. Art, music, sports—he started to roam everywhere. He invested millions to collect Leonardo da Vinci’s paintings, brought Cristiano Ronaldo to the Saudi Pro League, and organised concerts with world-class artists. The purpose was one: to essentially transform Saudi Arabia. He announced Vision 2030 with the aim of reducing dependence on oil and converting Saudi Arabia into a country with a better life and a vibrant society, and an ambitious and modern technology-based economy. In line with these, the World Cup Football is scheduled to be held in Saudi Arabia in 2034.

Just as the rise of Mohammed bin Salman in politics has created tremendous momentum, it has also been accompanied by scandal and criticism. He has been controversial for his alleged involvement in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and his alleged links to Jeffrey Epstein, as well as for his support for the Yemeni government against the Houthi rebels, and for a deal with Russia to change the regime in Syria. In 2015, while he was defence minister, he launched a military campaign against the Houthi rebels in support of the Yemeni government. Since then, the Saudi-Houthi conflict has been a major obstacle to Saudi Arabia’s global ambitions, regional leadership and domestic stability and security.

The Houthis are a Shiite religious group. As a result, they are receiving solid backing from Iran. The Houthis have become significant allies in the Middle East theatre of war for their geopolitical potential. If they can control the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, they will be able to control shipping through the Red Sea. With the seizure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will then enjoy additional strength from its allies. As a result, the Houthi debacle will not be resolved until the Iran question is resolved. The Shia-Sunni conflict in the regional framework is directly related to the Iran question. Iran’s nuclear ambitions are also a big question for regional stability. As a result, the Saudi-Houthi conflict is now less likely to be resolved bilaterally. Rather, it has gradually become part of the entire Middle East peace framework. The Houthis also have alliances with the Palestinian Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah groups. As a result, even if an isolated initiative provides a semblance of a solution to the Saudi-Houthi conflict, its lasting solution will lie in establishing a just and comprehensive peace in the Middle East.

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The writer is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador