Is G-20’s Future Going to Be Uncertain?

At the beginning of this month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hosted the G-20 Finance Ministers’ conference in North Carolina, USA, where the attending global economic officials discussed some challenges the world is now facing. This conference was held as a preparatory meeting for the Group’s summit to be held in December. However, the conference eventually turned into a hectic debate and cross argument among the representatives and finally ended without consensus on global issues.  As reported in the media, there was a hectic discussion among the attending finance ministers in the sideline of the main meeting. Breakdown of Canada-US trade talks topped the sideline discussion. Even sovereign debt of the developed economies, particularly the USA, has taken a serious turn, with the American carrying mammoth $40 trillion sovereign debt, which may cause a threat to the global financial stability if not properly addressed. Because, if the sovereign debt of the world’s large economies continues to rise unabated, the economic growth may at a certain point overturn that debt, which would be a dangerous consequence for the global economy.

US Treasury Secretary Scott  reportedly said in the meeting, “The world is awash in debt.” In this connection, he further said, “The only way for us to get out of this is to grow our way out of it." After the meeting while talking with the newsmen, Bessent said, “With America once again leading this forum, the days of settling for subpar growth are over. The discussions we have had here this week leave me confident that many of our partners are now prepared to join us.” Bessent’s statement and talking with the newsmen may seem to be very diplomatic and strategic in nature, which reveals that most attending members could not reach consensus on what the US Treasury Secretary was discussing. Therefore, he was categorically urging his counterparts to prepare for joining the US when most of them have been hard hit with unfriendly behaviour from the US.

In the meeting, some confrontational discussions were apparent over the collapse of Canada-US trade talks, attending the Russian Finance Minister and releasing a statement. Breakdown of Canada-US trade talks triggering actions and counteraction was critically discussed in the meeting. Even Trump’s immediate decision of renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America, which turned a trade dispute into a sort of geopolitical dispute, was not liked by most attending members and, as such, caused severe frustration to the member countries. Even Trump’s decision of renaming Lake Ontario has further alienated most neighbouring members instead of resolving the dispute. At the same time, member countries from the European Union have been frustrated and become furious that Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was invited without ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. 

In the meeting, heated discussion erupted over the Iran issue entangling China’s involvement with Iran. Bessent threatened to impose sanctions on Iran’s trading partners, categorically pointing to China, which is one of the largest trading partners of Iran. As learnt from a media report, Bessent told former Trump adviser Larry Kudlow at the G-20 event that the long-time US adversary is on their side when it comes to certain aspects of the Iran conflict. This clearly pointed out to China, which is the top trading partner with the Iranian regime. Even the issuance of the meeting statement does not appear to have been prepared based on consensus with all member countries. After the meeting, while releasing the official statement, Bessent said the general position of every country present except for China, which, he said, was unlikely to agree to a pointed statement about trade imbalances. When this news was reported, the media clearly stated that they could not independently confirm that all countries attending the conference agreed with the statement.

This year’s G-20 Finance Ministers' meeting has been held in such a critical situation when the world has taken a very complex shape heading towards new multidimensional polarisation. The Anti-Western Alliance, comprising mostly emerging markets, BRICS has held its 18th summit with the new promise of moving ahead with active cooperation, partnership and association, particularly in terms of trade and commerce. The Middle East war has not ended; rather, it has taken a more complex turn, with Iran emerging as a new stronghold, raising security concerns for other Gulf countries. The EU's contemplation of reviving their group activity with the scope of expanding their periphery to non-EU countries was reflected in offering associate membership to Canada.

If grouping and regrouping move ahead with their new promise and plan, the USA, which apparently seems to be sidelined, may consider forming another new alliance. If such a consequence really happens, not only the G-20 but also the G-8 may lose its importance and relevance in the newly evolving world scenario. G-20 summit is expected to be held in the coming December and hosted by US President Donald Trump. If the disputes and mistrust created among the member countries are not resolved and an amicable relationship is not restored in the coming summit, the future of the G-20 may be heading towards great uncertainty.