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Back in 1984, Glenn Frey recorded a mid-to-up-tempo beat song titled “The Heat Is On” for the film Beverly Hills Cop. It became a blockbuster and earned him $15,000 at that time. The song remains the highest-charting solo single by any band member of the Eagles. The lyrics of the song have a prophetic ring to it: “The heat is on,/ On the street/ Inside your head/ On every beat/ And the beat's so loud/ Deep inside/ The pressure's high/ Just to stay alive/ 'Cause the heat is on. This is the current predicament that most of us are facing in the summer of 2026.
EM-DAT- The International Disaster Database, under the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in Belgium, recorded 131 events of heat waves across 53 countries between 2020 and June 2026, resulting in 184,128 deaths and more than 33 million people being affected by the heat waves across the globe. Recent reports suggest that we have to brace ourselves for more extreme weather events in the coming months globally. The World Meteorological Organization issued a press release on 2 June 2026 stating that there is an 80% likelihood of El Niño events during June-August 2026, with a strong likelihood (at 90% probability) that this will continue till November 2026. The forecast model predicts that El Niño conditions are developing due to unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. This will have a strong impact on global temperatures and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.
Simply put, El Niño – which means 'a little boy' in Spanish – is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs when easterly trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm surface waters to accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. Historically, it was first noticed by South American fishermen in the 1600s. The full name they used was El Niño de Navidad, because El Niño typically peaks around December.
The science leaves no room for doubt. Now let us look at the statistics – according to Munich Re, one of the world’s largest insurers, extreme weather caused $288 billion in disaster losses in 2025. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 13,600 of the 17,200 deaths due to worldwide disasters. In the beginning of 2025, Thomas Blunck, Member of the Board of Management – Munich Re, said, “One record-breaking high after another – the consequences are devastating. The destructive forces of climate change are becoming increasingly evident, as backed up by science. Societies need to prepare for more severe weather catastrophes." The economic losses due to disasters unambiguously reinforce the narrative, with losses worth 270 billion dollars in 2022, followed by 268 and 288 billion dollars in 2023 and 2025, respectively, while 2024 recorded the maximum losses worth 320 billion dollars. We have yet to see how the year 2026 unfolds; the predictions indicate a grim picture.
The United Nations Geneva Office urged all countries to strengthen early warning systems after confirming the onset of El Niño. WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo noted that the 2023–24 El Niño ranked among the five most intense events ever recorded, significantly contributing to the unprecedented global temperatures observed in 2024.
What does this mean for the 1.2 billion people at high risk from climate change globally? This is the most vulnerable population who face life-changing risks through exposure to at least one critical climate hazard, such as heatwaves, flooding, hurricanes and drought.
The World Bank’s 2024 report, ‘Rising to the Challenge’, underlined that faster development and sustainable economic growth can reduce climate change-related losses. The report highlighted that building resilience to climate change and economic developments are interlinked. It estimated that a 10% increase in GDP per capita will reduce the number of people who are most vulnerable by about 100 million. Economic growth aligned with climate-informed policies, tailored to country-specific context, can build people’s resilience. Wealthier nations should focus on upgrading infrastructure, while lower-income countries have the opportunity to build sustainably from the outset.
Climate action requires protecting communities from hazards, expanding early warning systems, improving access to insurance, and strengthening health systems for crisis response. Positive examples already demonstrate impact. India’s Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan has prevented over 2,000 heat-related deaths by combining early warnings with public outreach. Niger’s adaptive social protection system delivered cash during droughts, improving food security and well-being. Bangladesh’s improved forecasts reduced crop losses by 75%, while utilities from Brazil to Albania are integrating climate risks into operations, investing in resilience and nature-based solutions.
These lessons show that climate resilience is achievable. By aligning growth with sustainability, countries can save lives, strengthen economies, and ensure communities can navigate through extreme weather impacts in a warming world. Going back to lyrics from the 1984 chartbuster: “You can make a break/ You can win or lose/ That's a chance you take/ When the heats on you/ The Heat is on!”.
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The writer is a climate change and sustainability professional with 17 years of experience across India, South Asia and Africa. She can be reached at [email protected]