Bangladesh Needs to Prepare for any Contingency

India-Bangladesh relations are passing through one of their most strained and consequential phases since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971. What was once framed by New Delhi as a “special relationship” has, over the decades, increasingly been perceived in Bangladesh as an unequal one-marked by India’s persistent attempts to exert undue influence, not only on bilateral matters but also on Bangladesh’s internal political processes. Repeated crises have tested whether India truly behaves as a friend that respects sovereignty or as a regional power-seeking compliance. For a growing majority of Bangladeshis excluding a narrow circle of political beneficiaries and collaborators those tests have produced deep dissatisfaction and mistrust.

Since 1971, India has maintained a decisive presence in Bangladesh’s political, security and economic landscape. While cooperation in certain areas has been mutually beneficial, many Bangladeshis believe India has repeatedly crossed the line by intervening in domestic politics, influencing electoral outcomes, shaping media narratives and backing preferred political actors. This perception hardened over time, particularly during periods when democratic processes were weakened and governance drifted towards authoritarianism with tacit or explicit Indian support. As a result, India increasingly came to be seen not as a neutral neighbour, but as a power invested in controlling political outcomes in Dhaka. The July Revolution of 2024 marked a turning point. The mass uprising and subsequent fall of what many Bangladeshis describe as a fascist and illegitimate regime fundamentally altered public sentiment. India’s unwavering support for the ousted government right up to its collapse was widely interpreted as an endorsement of repression, electoral manipulation and the suppression of popular will. After August 2024, anti-Indian sentiment surged across society, cutting across party lines, social classes and generations. This sentiment was not driven by emotion alone, but by a growing conviction that India had aligned itself against the democratic aspirations of the Bangladeshi people.

India’s posture along the border has become increasingly assertive. Reports of troop deployments, movement of sophisticated military equipment, enhanced surveillance and the presence of air assets near sensitive areas have generated widespread alarm. While India frames these actions as routine or defensive, in the current political climate they are widely interpreted in Bangladesh as coercive signalling. Such military posturing, combined with hostile rhetoric and psychological pressure, poses a direct challenge to Bangladesh’s national security and strategic autonomy. Several high-profile developments have further inflamed public anger. Issues surrounding the Bangladesh national cricket team, the sudden withdrawal of Indian diplomats’ families, reports of harassment and torture of Bangladeshi citizens inside India, and the abrupt restriction or suspension of visa issuance have all contributed to the perception of collective punishment and intimidation. Individually, these actions might be explained away as administrative or security decisions; taken together, they form a pattern that many Bangladeshis interpret as deliberate pressure tactics.

On the other hand, Bangladesh has always identified itself as a peace-loving nation, committed to coexistence, dialogue and cooperation with all states. From its active role in United Nations peacekeeping missions to its consistent support for diplomatic solutions to global conflicts, Bangladesh has demonstrated that it seeks stability rather than confrontation. The country has no ambition to dominate others, interfere in the affairs of neighbours, or become entangled in unnecessary wars. Peace, however, does not mean vulnerability. History teaches that peace is preserved not merely by good intentions, but by preparedness, deterrence and the capacity to defend sovereignty when it is threatened. While Bangladesh desires friendly relations with all, it cannot ignore the reality that conflict is sometimes imposed by external actors through coercion, intimidation or aggression. In such circumstances, defending the motherland becomes not a choice but a duty. National survival, territorial integrity and the safety of citizens must take precedence over all considerations. Therefore, maintaining credible defence preparedness is not contradictory to a peace-loving policy; rather, it is an essential pillar of sustainable peace. A nation that cannot defend itself invites pressure, while a nation that is prepared discourages adventurism.

Modernising the armed forces is central to this preparedness. Warfare today is no longer confined to conventional battlefields; it spans airspace, cyberspace, information domains and precision-guided systems. Bangladesh must continue upgrading its army, navy and air force with modern equipment, advanced surveillance systems and integrated command-and-control capabilities. Investment in air defence, early-warning radars, drones, cyber defence and intelligence capabilities is particularly critical to protect national airspace and detect threats before they escalate. Securing land borders and maritime boundaries with effective monitoring, rapid response units and interoperable forces is equally vital in preventing infiltration, coercion or escalation. Defending airspace deserves special emphasis, as control of the air often determines the outcome of modern conflicts. A credible air defence network, supported by modern fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missile systems, and real-time intelligence sharing, acts as a strong deterrent against hostile actions. Similarly, safeguarding the Bay of Bengal and critical sea lanes is essential for protecting trade, energy security and national economic lifelines. A capable navy, equipped for maritime surveillance, anti-surface and anti-submarine operations, strengthens Bangladesh’s strategic depth and regional standing.

Strategic partnerships and carefully balanced military cooperation also play a crucial role. Bangladesh does not need confrontational alliances, but it does need reliable partners for training, technology transfer, intelligence sharing and joint exercises. Diversifying defence relationships reduces dependence on any single power and enhances strategic autonomy. Constructive engagement with regional and global partners helps Bangladesh learn from advanced militaries while reinforcing its image as a responsible and stabilising actor in the international system.

Equally important is building a society that understands national defence as a collective responsibility. Introducing structured, compulsory military or national service training for youths-designed not to militarise society but to instil discipline, resilience, basic defence skills and civic responsibility can strengthen national unity and preparedness. Such training can enhance disaster response capacity, promote physical and mental fitness and create a reserve force that can be mobilised in times of national emergency. When citizens are trained and informed, deterrence becomes stronger because national defence is no longer the burden of the armed forces alone. Ultimately, Bangladesh’s path to peace lies in a balanced approach: firm commitment to diplomacy and international cooperation, combined with unwavering readiness to defend itself. Preparedness should never be interpreted as aggression, nor should peace be mistaken for weakness. By modernising its defence forces, securing its borders and airspace, cultivating strategic partnerships, and empowering its youth with national defence skills, Bangladesh can ensure that peace remains a choice made by strength, not a condition imposed by vulnerability.
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The writer is a retired Major General, geopolitical and security analyst. He can be reached at [email protected]