If all goes according to plan, the Election Commission may announce the schedule for the forthcoming national parliamentary elections this week. The 13th parliamentary election is expected to take place in February next year, and the electoral atmosphere is already taking shape across the country. Two major parties – the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami – have even released the names of their preliminary candidates. After many years, the people of Bangladesh are eagerly preparing to exercise their voting rights again. Who will win? The answer remains far from clear. Voter sentiment is still uncertain.

Even a year ago, many believed BNP’s victory was only a matter of time, with the next election seen as little more than a formality before the party’s return to power. Yet, as time passes, the outcome appears increasingly unpredictable. Not only BNP leaders but even grassroots activists can no longer confidently claim that victory is assured.

Following the fall of the Awami League, various organisations conducted surveys on the upcoming election. Their findings indicate that BNP’s popularity has stagnated, while some show a decline in support for the country’s largest political party. By contrast, Jamaat’s popularity has risen across multiple surveys. Another striking trend is that 40–50% of respondents declined to reveal their preferred party. A survey by the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) shows that 48.5% of respondents have not yet decided which party they will support. The same survey notes that support for BNP fell to 12% in July 2025, compared with 16.3% in October 2024.

Meanwhile, the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Centre for Insights in Survey Research carried out a nationwide survey between 13 September and 12 October across all eight divisions. The findings, published as the “National Survey of Bangladesh, September-October 2025”, highlight several noteworthy trends. When asked about party preference, 51% of respondents expressed a preference for BNP, while 53% favoured Jamaat. In addition, 38% preferred the National Citizen Party (NCP), 33% Islami Andolan Bangladesh, and 25% the Awami League.

When asked about their likelihood of voting, 66% said they would ‘definitely’ vote, while another 23% said they were “likely” to vote. Only 9% said they were unlikely to do so. If elections were held next week, 30% said they would vote for BNP, and 26% for Jamaat-e-Islami. Six% preferred NCP, five% Jatiya Party, and four% Islami Andolan. Eleven% would support other parties, seven% remain undecided, and 11% declined to answer.

These results suggest that although Jamaat currently ranks as the most preferred party, more respondents indicated they would actually vote for BNP. Even then, Jamaat remains close behind – only four percentage points lower. Given that Jamaat is forming understandings with eight other political groups, a combined voter base could significantly alter the electoral landscape.

Over the past 18 months, BNP’s popularity has dipped for a number of reasons. Key issues include misconduct by certain leaders, allegations of extortion and land grabbing in various regions, disputes over nominations, and internal factionalism. Many feel BNP has been vocal about election-related demands but less attentive to day-to-day public concerns. Some believe the party is so focused on returning to power that it is neglecting broader national issues, creating frustration among sections of the electorate.

For the past 15 years, BNP symbolised unity within opposition politics and led the collective struggle for democracy. But since the fall of the Awami League, the party appears increasingly isolated. Most major allies have drifted away, leaving BNP with smaller partners whose motivations are widely perceived as self-interested – often focused on securing one or two parliamentary seats. Such alliances could become a liability rather than an asset. At the same time, uncertainty persists within the party regarding the return of its acting chairman.

Conversely, Jamaat – BNP’s chief competitor at present – has surprised many with its strategic and organisational discipline. Its planning has drawn considerable attention, while Islami Chhatra Shibir’s strong performance in university student union elections has given Jamaat a significant boost. The party is attempting to move beyond its traditional conservative image and reposition itself as a liberal democratic force. For the first time, Jamaat is nominating candidates from outside its own leadership, including from religious minority communities.

Between February and October this year, Jamaat announced candidates for all 300 constituencies in phases. Last week, it changed nominees in three constituencies – one now featuring a minority candidate. More changes are reportedly under discussion, including the possible nomination of at least one Hindu candidate, potentially in Kishoreganj-4 (Itna–Mithamain–Austagram). The BNP candidate there is Fazlur Rahman, an adviser to the BNP chairperson (currently suspended), who has been outspoken against “anti-Liberation War rhetoric” since 5 August last year.

Of the three constituencies where Jamaat made changes, Khulna-1 has drawn the most attention. The new candidate is Krishna Nandi, president of the Hindu Committee in Dumuria upazila, replacing Sheikh Abu Yusuf, the Jamaat ameer of Batiaghata upazila. Although Nandi resides in Khulna-5, he has been active in Jamaat’s meetings in Khulna-1 for the past year, and many Hindu attendees have also participated in those gatherings. Khulna-1 has historically elected Hindu candidates in nearly every election since 1973, which may explain Jamaat’s strategic choice.

These developments demonstrate that Jamaat has crafted a meticulous election strategy, and as time passes, it is becoming an increasingly formidable challenge for BNP. Jamaat’s eight-party alliance may not form a formal electoral coalition, but practical seat-sharing arrangements appear likely. This could create further complications for BNP in multiple constituencies.

In short, the upcoming election will not be a straightforward contest. Voter calculations are shifting, preferences are evolving, and no clear political wave has emerged in favour of any party. The election may prove tense and unpredictable, with voters quietly reserving the power to overturn all predictions. Whatever the final outcome, the true winner will be the people.

Audite Karim is a writer and playwright. Email: [email protected]