What Causes Boro Rice Area’s Statistical Mismatch?

We know that high-quality and reliable data are essential for effective agricultural planning, decision-making and operational efficiency.  However, statistical mismatches in the Boro rice area have recently raised food security and rice policy concerns. According to a report prepared by the Department of Agricultural Extension, the c area was 50.45 lac hectares this year. But, the statistics look inconsistent with reality and can be rather misleading. It can create production mismatch and ultimately affect the rice market and import policy.

According to the statistics, Bangladesh is ready to harvest 50.45 lac hectare (ha) of Boro rice. With an estimated yield of 4.46 tons per hectare, the Boro season is likely to refill the national rice basket with 225 lac tons of rice. Bangladesh harvested 40.64 lac ha of Boro rice in 2005. This area increased to 47.78 lac ha in 2020 and 48.5 lac ha in 2023.

But how much land do we have for Boro rice cultivation? BBS estimated 81 lac hectares of cultivable land in 2005 with a 0.6 to 0.8 per cent non-agricultural conversion per year. A few studies suggest this conversion as nearly 1.0 per cent. Considering a 0.6% loss of agricultural land, we have nearly 70 lac hectares of cultivable land for rice, non-rice crops, orchards and ornamental plants. Even if we consider overlapping crops such as mustard and potato, sparing 50 lac hectares for Boro rice is arithmetically impossible.

Boro rice is one of the three major rice-growing seasons in Bangladesh, alongside Aman (monsoon season) and Aus (pre-monsoon season). Unlike Aman, which relies on rainfall, Boro rice is cultivated in the dry winter season (November–May) and depends heavily on irrigation.

It contributes significantly to Bangladesh's total rice production, accounting for about 55–60% of the country’s annual rice output. With the expansion of irrigation and drainage infrastructure and the adoption of high-yielding rice varieties, the Boro rice area started to increase in the 1980s, replacing low-yielding rain-fed Aus rice.  Along with Boro rice, the area under other dry season crops such as pulses, oilseed crops, winter vegetables, potato and fruit crops started to increase. Intercrop competition and farmers’ cropping preferences are higher in the Rabi season.

Recent land use trends, farming system dynamics, profitability and environmental risks question the Boro rice area. A significant increase in Maize cultivation in the winter season, from 1.23 lac ha in 2000 to 5.28 lac ha in 2024, questions the 50 lac hectares of Boro rice.

Maize cultivation mainly replaced wheat (nearly one lac hectare) and Boro rice (supposed to be three lac hectares).  Fodder crop cultivation (Napier, Para, Jumbo, Sorghum, Cowpea) has increased significantly (from 10,000 hectares in 2000 to 1.8 lac hectares in 2024) over the last twenty years, replacing mainly Boro rice. A very good market price for beef is likely to occupy more of the Boro rice area for fodder crop cultivation.

Farmer’s interest in high-value crops such as fruits (guava, litchi, mango, dragon fruits), spices (e.g. onion, garlic), cut flowers, and vegetables is on the rise. Furthermore, the low profitability of rice is moving farmers from rice cultivation. High-impact journal articles have justified the fact that Boro rice farmers have been moving away from high-cost-intensive Boro rice in a changing climate and hydrological risks. 

Every year, 8-10 thousand hectares of cropland are lost in the Padma, Jamuna and Meghna basins. Even though new chars arise, some crops (such as mustard, wheat, maize, vegetables) are grown there according to the quality of the soil, but Boro rice is rarely cultivated.

The Soil Resources Development Institute, SPARSO, and the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council have been working on surveying the cultivated land under various crops using GIS technology. The satellite images used in the free version do not provide error-free results. Some researchers have determined the amount of land under rice cultivation in their research using GIS.  However, there are some technical limitations in the case of Bangladesh. Diversified crops in Rabi season cannot be identified accurately using satellite images.

Recent research shows that Boro rice cultivation is being disrupted in six climate hotspots in Bangladesh. It is being disrupted in the Haor region due to flash floods. The coastal region is the most risky for Boro cultivation due to salinity and scarce fresh water. Boro cultivation is being challenged in the Barind tract due to the shortage of groundwater.

The drought-prone northern region is leaning towards water-efficient non-rice crops. Despite so much research, statistics, logic and practicality, the fact that the land under Boro rice cultivation is continuously increasing has called into question the credibility of the statistics of the Agriculture Department. Even in the era of GIS, remote sensing and AI, this is truly ridiculous. Why do we have to be champions in everything and win medals? Why do we have to celebrate bumper yields and record production every year?

It seems that this nation had fallen into a disastrous addiction of complacency after hearing exaggerated statements of development, forgetting that data integrity is very important to survive in the current world of trade and tariff wars. And strong data integrity leads to better planning, reduced risks and improved business outcomes. If the statistics are flawed, then it will be very difficult to formulate a strong 'rice policy' with such unreliable information.  Our report does not match the USDA or FAO reports. Even if there is bumper production, we will have to carry the burden of imports - how will it be then? Indeed, misleading information, manipulated data and exaggerated success stories can lead to a serious policy paradox. Therefore, it is time to present accurate statistics of land under rice cultivation, considering manual methods, GIS, cropping system analysis, and land use trends. 

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The writer is a civil servant and can be reached at [email protected]