Eminent agricultural economist Dr Jahangir Alam has emphasised the crucial importance of reliable agricultural statistics to ensure food security.

He opined that the planning for production, consumption, import and export becomes very problematic without accurate data, leading to market instability and price volatility.

One of the biggest concerns in the agricultural sector of Bangladesh is the overestimation of the production figures, said the agricultural economist.

Government agencies often report inflated production statistics, which are often not in accordance with the real market conditions. This discrepancy results in delivery shortages, triggering price hikes and market instability.

The potato production figures for 2023-24 can be stated, for example. According to the statistics of the government, potato production was 10.6 million tonnes, while our annual maximum demand for food and seeds together is 900,000 tonnes.

This should have left a surplus of 1.5 to 1.6 million tonnes. However, the instability in the market and the rising potato prices suggested that these statistics were exaggerated.

Even after importing potatoes from abroad, price increases could not be checked, whereby the potato prices rose to Tk70-80 per kg.

Although cold storage facilities usually store around 5 million tonnes of potatoes annually, last year, the amount that was stored in both institutional and traditional storage methods was not even 3 million tonnes.

Institutional storage refers to commercial storage facilities, while traditional storage means that farmers keep potatoes in their own way.

The annual onion production is reportedly 3.4-3.5 million tonnes through the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), while the demand is 2.6 million tonnes.

Nevertheless, at least 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes of onions must be imported each year. The onion prices often rise.

There is always confusion about rice production. Although there is a considerable surplus between our annual production and demand, we still import 1-1.5 million tonnes of rice annually.

If the input decreases, shortages push rice prices up. In the tax year 2023-24, the government reported that rice production was 40.6 million tonnes.

Given a population of 173 million, the annual demand for rice is 37.3 million tonnes, leaving an estimated surplus of 3.4 million tonnes.

However, market instability and price increases indicated that these production figures may not be accurate.

According to USAID, the actual rice production was 37 million tonnes. This means that the total rice production was overestimated by 3.7 million tonnes.

This year, due to high prices in the international market, traders were not keen on importing rice.

However, wheat imports reached a record high of 6.6 million tonnes, while rice imports remained negligible due to higher international prices.

For the 2024 calendar year, the DAE claimed that Aman rice production was 16.9 million tonnes, whereas USAID estimated it at 14 million tonnes.

Due to consecutive floods in different parts of the country and Cyclone ‘Hemel,’ rice production was significantly reduced.

Late planting also resulted in lower yields, but this reality was not reflected in the Department of Agricultural Extension’s data. The instability in the rice market suggests that their statistics may not be accurate.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has yet to release this year’s Aus and Aman production figures, and when they do, the delay renders them ineffective for planning.

Now, let’s talk about non-crop agriculture.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding statistics in the fisheries and livestock sector. The current annual production of milk, meat, and fish is reported to be 14.1 million tonnes, 8.8 million tonnes, and 4.9 million tonnes, respectively.

Egg production stands at 23.38 billion per year. Over the past 15 years, the sector has seen annual growth rates of 12% in milk production, 13% in meat production, 9% in egg production, and 3.5% in fish production.

However, such rapid growth in production is unlikely.

The Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) provides daily per capita consumption data for fish, meat, eggs, and milk, which do not align with the data provided by the Fisheries and Department of Livestock Services (DLS) and the Department of Fisheries (DoF).

According to DLS, per capita daily milk availability is 225 grams, whereas actual consumption is reported to be only 34 grams by BBS.

DLS and DoF data also state that the availability of meat is 140 grams, eggs 19 grams, and fish 79 grams, totalling 219 grams of fish and meat combined.

However, actual consumption figures indicate only 40 grams of meat, 13 grams of eggs, and 68 grams of fish per day, totalling just 108 grams of meat and fish.

The consumption is less than half of the DLS’s and DoF’s claimed availability.

The discrepancies between these statistics suggest that the actual production might be much lower than reported. If production were as high as claimed, why are the prices of these products so high?

In the neighbouring Indian state of West Bengal, an egg costs approximately Tk6, while in Bangladesh, it has reached Tk14 each.