With gaining control of around 270-kilometre frontiers along Bangladesh following the capturing of the last army outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw in Rakhine state of Myanmar by the rebel Arakan Army (AA), the crises Bangladesh is facing due to the unrest has turned deeper and more complex further.

Analysts fear that the situation, in addition to a new influx of Rohingya, could also prolong the long-awaited repatriation of the Rohingya.

Apart from securing the borders, they emphasised escalating diplomatic efforts with Naypyidaw for a resolution to the long-standing crises.

However, Bangladesh has already beefed up security at the borders and the Naf River and suspended water transport on the Teknaf-Saint Martin route to avoid any untoward incidents.

Although having no involvement, Bangladesh has been bearing the brunt of the conflict between the Myanmar security forces and the rebel AA along its frontiers under Cox’s Bazar and Bandarban districts for the past year.

In addition to the renewed exodus of Rohingyas, the frequent gunshots and shelling had posed a serious threat to the tourism industry based on coral island Saint Martin and export-import businesses through the Teknaf Land Port since the violence flared up again in November last year.

The clashes left residents of border villages in a state of fear and created scope for smuggling of commodities, fuel, and drugs as well, according to sources concerned.

It may be mentioned that the AA, an ethnic Rakhine armed group, has been engaged in long-standing conflict with the Myanmar military for control over Rakhine State.

Hostilities between the junta forces and the AA reignited in mid-November 2023, ending a year-long unofficial ceasefire.

The conflict, which has intensified since 3 February this year, has seen mortar shells and bullets encroaching into Bangladeshi territory, resulting in casualties and injuries.

However, locals didn’t hear sounds of bombardment and gunshot after the AA announced it would take control of the Maungdaw township along the Bangladesh borders on Tuesday.

International media reported on Tuesday that the ethnic minority armed groups battling Myanmar’s army make the group’s control of the northern part of Rakhine state complete and mark another advance in its bid for self-rule there.

Maungdaw, about 400 kilometres southwest of Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, has been the target of an AA offensive since June.

The group captured Paletwa and Buthidaung, two other towns on the border with Bangladesh, earlier this year.

Since November 2023, the AA has gained control of 11 of Rakhine’s 17 townships, along with one in neighbouring Chin state.

The AA said on Sunday it had ordered the suspension of transport across the Naf River because police and local Muslims affiliated with the army were attempting to escape by boat to Bangladesh, read the media reports.

Teknaf Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO) Ehsan Uddin told the Daily Sun that security has already been tightened and patrolling intensified by the Border Guard Bangladesh and Coast Guard to prevent potential infiltration and other untoward incidents.

The law enforcers were also kept alert following the reported changed scenario in Myanmar, he added.

On the other hand, security analyst Major (retd) Emdadul Islam said the impact of the crisis centring on gaining control of Maungdaw along Bangladesh's borders by the AA has gotten deeper.

As some organisations associated with Rohingyas, including the Arakan Rohingya Army, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, and Rohingya Solidarity Organisation, fought on behalf of the junta government, the now-fleeing groups and their families living in Rakhine will attempt to intrude into Bangladesh, he suspected.

Besides, since the AA took control of Maungdaw, the much-talked-about repatriation process of the Rohingyas will be prolonged further, said Emdad.

In addition to diplomatic efforts with Naypyidaw, the matter of geopolitical stakeholders should be considered in this regard, he added.