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Arab Spring Effect in South Asia: After Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, Which Next?

Abu Sufian

Published: 17 Aug 2024

Arab Spring Effect in South Asia: After Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, Which Next?
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Yemeni human rights activist Tawakkul Karman, known as “The Mother of the Revolution,” once said, youth is a revolution; they cannot be stopped, suppressed and silenced. Karman's words came true in Bangladesh on August 5. On that day Sheikh Hasina, known as the iron lady of Bangladesh, resigned and fled the country after weeks of deadly protests against her. A non-violent movement by the students against the introduction of a quota system in the country's government jobs quickly turned into an anti-government Gen-Z revolution. The youth uprising has struck a chord in a society already deeply enraged by the rising cost of living, corruption, and violent repression of dissent.

There are instances of this kind of large-scale movement in South Asian countries. It began with the overthrow of Sri Lanka's government and later moved to Bangladesh and toppled the Hasina government. Now, glimpses can be seen in India and Pakistan. Students in Pakistan have already organised protests to establish true democracy. On the other hand, a prominent Congress leader in India warned that India's future political instability would have the same outcome as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Two years ago, in 2022, Sri Lankan people from all walks of life started a movement to end the corrupt rule of the Rajapaksa family. As a result, Sri Lanka's dynastic politics collapsed. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) won a majority in the 2020 Sri Lankan parliamentary elections to form the government. But most of the party's cabinet ministers were from the Rajapaksa family. The opposition accused the government of nepotism.

In 2021, the Sri Lankan economy suffered a massive collapse due to the Corona epidemic. The tourism-based economy becomes almost fragile. The popularity of the Rajapaksa-led government began to decline in 2021 due to poor management of the economy. Moreover, due to the banning of chemical fertilizers, the country faced a severe food crisis at one stage. As remittances declined, GDP also collapsed. Moreover, the government's high-budget megaprojects were unproductive. At one stage the movement to overthrow the government started, and Mahindra Rajapaksa was forced to resign.

The world saw such a mass uprising during the Arab Spring that began in 2010. The mass awakening organised by the people of the Arab world became known as the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring began on December 17, 2010 in Tunisia. An educated, unemployed youth named Mohammad Bouazizi, a fruit seller, committed suicide by setting himself on fire in protest against police corruption and misbehaviour. From that day on, the movement to overthrow the dictator Ben Ali began. The mass protests that started in Tunisia spread to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and other Arab countries.

Arab Spring can be attributed to government corruption, dictatorship, human rights violations, unemployment, extreme poverty, a weak economy, and rising food prices. The people of different Arab countries began to unite against the dictators and started anti-government movements to free themselves from their dictatorial rule for a long time. The Arab Spring led to major uprisings in Algeria, Yemen, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and smaller uprisings in Iraq, Kuwait, Mauritania, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Syria.

Recently, student and general public movements are being observed in various South Asian countries. India's staunch Hindutva political party, BJP, is in power. The Modi government has been heavily criticised for its several controversial activities, including using religion in politics, providing extra benefits to businessmen, the Citizenship Amendment Act-2019, and meddling in the politics of other countries. In recent times, the states of Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, Assam, and Nagaland have seen insurgencies at various times in northeastern India. The Jammu and Kashmir issue has also intensified since 2019. Also, the movement is ongoing to form a separate country of Sikhs named Khalistan consisting of Punjab in Pakistan and Punjab in India and also Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Rajasthan. People are slowly getting fed up with the strict Hindutva attitude of the BJP. The anti-BJP sentiment is growing in India.

Similar to Bangladesh, the students of Pakistan have also called for a movement to restore the country's constitution and revitalise the student unions. The movement was called by the Insaf Students Federation (ISF), the student wing of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), demanding the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the restoration of a true democracy in the country. Apparently influenced by the Bangladeshi student movement, the ISF called the protest.

The current Prime Minister of Pakistan is Shahbaz Sharif of the ruling Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Sharif formed the government after winning the elections held in February 2024. But in that election, former Pakistan PM Imran Khan's party was banned, and PTI’s candidates were not allowed to contest with their party's election symbol. Moreover, the election was marred by allegations of vote rigging and delayed results. These allegations led to widespread protests and unrest across the country. ISF President Arslan Hafeez, Vice President Amjad Ali, and others said Pakistan is now under 'fascist rule'. Apart from this, the people of the country are suffering due to excessive electricity bills and taxes as well as unprecedented inflation. It remains to be seen whether the Shahbaz Sharif government will be overthrown by the student movement.

Similar to the Arab Spring, the movement against the governments in South Asian countries is slowly being witnessed. There is a strong possibility that we may see another spring in the volatile politics going on in other South Asian countries as well.

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The writer is a geo-political researcher and freelance columnist

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