Politics in post-general elections remains as badly polarised as in the run up to the poll. One would have expected the political sabre-rattling and name-calling, which is quite usual, would be over now that the results are out and the picture is clear as to which coalition of parties would rule India for the next five years. Perhaps the scars left by the trading of blames by parties on opposite sides of the aisle are too deep to be healed so quickly.

It took the main opposition party Congress four days to acknowledge defeat in the elections for the INDIA opposition bloc which finished with 234 seats as against 294 by the BJP-led NDA in the 543-member Lok Sabha. “We accept the electoral verdict with humility,” Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge told a meeting of the party’s decision-making forum on June 8, a day before Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s PM for a third straight term.

In their post-results comments, opposition leaders from Rahul Gandhi to Mamata Banerjee described BJP’s failure to score a majority of its own as PM Narendra Modi’s defeat. This was expected considering that the BJP-led NDA’s campaign was framed around him. His energetic campaign covering 216 rallies across India only amplified his overarching image. So, any failure on the part of BJP was bound to reflect on him. While results clearly suggest that the law of politics has caught up with Modi, he has still pulled off a feat which most incumbents in democracy can only dream of. Modi is going to be only the second PM after Jawaharlal Nehru to have secured a third term.

Those demanding Modi’s resignation as PM post-election on the ground that BJP failed to get majority on its own in the recent elections must be reminded of the fact that Congress, which ruled India for a decade from 2004 heading United Progressive Alliance also lacked majority and was propped up by its allies. In fact, Congress has failed to secure a majority of its own ever since 1984. True, BJP did not get a majority on its own but NDA headed by the party has got 294 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. NDA is a pre-poll alliance and not cobbled hurriedly after the election results.  

Initially, the opposition appeared to give the impression that it would lure away some of NDA allies like TDP and Janata Dal (U) and try and make up the big gap to parliamentary majority. This is evident in Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s remarks at an INDIA block meeting a day after the results were declared.   In what sounded like an invite to BJP allies to defect, Kharge said “INDIA alliance welcomes all parties which share its fundamental commitment to the values enshrined in the Preamble to our Constitution and to its many provisions for economic, social and political justice.”

On the day, BJP and NDA allies sealed the deal to form the next government, the opposition INDIA said it will take “appropriate steps” in the future to “realise the people’s desire not to be ruled by the BJP government.” Sources said some of the regional parties like TMC are impatient and favoured exploring to form government by poaching into NDA. There were concerns that the Modi government could resume using federal probe agencies against opposition leaders facing corruption cases and “breaking of parties” once it is back in the saddle. The apprehension of harassment of opposition parties was expressed by more than one leader, sources said. The regional parties were unhappy that the first draft of a joint statement for the media was vague on the opposition’s willingness to explore options, now or later.

Congress tried to persuade some of their allies that it was difficult to stop BJP because it has a pre-poll alliance which got a clear majority. The Congress leadership rightly argued that the opposition should not be seen as trying to destabilise an elected government right from the word go and stepped back from that move. The opposition indicated that, for now, they would not seek a realignment of forces that could lead to power, opting instead to observe how Modi runs a coalition government for the first time with the unfamiliar pulls and pressures of a coalition. The assessment among the allies is that running a coalition would test Modi because he is in the unfamiliar terrain of coalition politics and BJP’s Hindutva agenda can put off NDA partners which do not share the saffron party’s ideological tenets.

Since the views within the opposition alliance are divided, a compromise statement was worked out which Kharge read out to the media: “We will take appropriate steps at the appropriate time to realise the people’s desire not to be ruled by the BJP government.” Such a statement keeps open the option of realignment of forces in the future while not giving the impression of any immediate rush for power. They said veteran politician Sharad Pawar, who is so conversant with coalition power play, concurred with Congress view and counselled patience and wait-and-watch policy.

But West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee struck a different note when she said just because the opposition alliance did not stake claim to form the government now, does not mean it will not do so in future. It is clear that a section of the opposition is not reconciled to Modi becoming the PM again with the help of its NDA allies. Just look at the number game. The tally of seats of Congress and the rest of the INDIA alliance add up to 234, which is less than that of BJP alone and also of NDA as a whole. Agreed democracy is not all about parliamentary arithmetic. But arithmetic is the sole determinant of which party or alliance of parties will form government under India’s first-past-the-post system.      
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The writer is a veteran Indian journalist