Is Muslim-majority Kashmir region of India’s union territory ready to turn a new chapter in its history? The question has cropped up after nearly 38 per cent of the voter turnout was reported from Srinagar constituency on the Lok Sabha polling day on 13 May, the highest in 26 years.

In 1996 parliamentary elections, a 41% turnout was reported and in the 2019 general elections, the figure had plunged to 14.4%.

Though the 2024 turnout in Srinagar was less compared to other parts of India, it is still considered encouraging by the standards of Jammu and Kashmir where the fear of terrorist violence and boycotts and threat of retribution have, for long, hung so heavy on elections for decades. Polls in Srinagar constituency had for long been notorious for intimidation by terror outfits and rigging.

This was the first election in the last three decades when no separatist outfit gave a call for a poll boycott in the six constituencies of Jammu and Kashmir, a factor which also played a role in improving the turnout in Srinagar, analysts say.

However, the voters who turned up at the booths came out with mixed reactions to Article 370’s abrogation by Prime Minister Narendra Modi government in August 2019, the absence of popularly-elected governments in the state and development of the region being the deciding factors.

The Srinagar constituency this time saw a three-cornered contest featuring National Conference’s (NC) Aga Ruhullah, who is backed by Congress, Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) Waheed Parra and Mohammad Ashraf Mir of Altaf Bukhari’s JK Apni Party.

Although BJP did not field a candidate in any of the three LS seats of Kashmir region for the first time in three decades, NC and PDP see JK Apni Party and JK People’s Conference as “proxies” of the saffron party. In any case, BJP was always a negligible player in Kashmir Valley.

Modi has celebrated the 38% turnout in Srinagar constituency as an endorsement of his government’s abrogation of Article 370 and said the polling percentage showed the steps taken by his administration were in the right direction and were bearing fruit.

“If you were to ask me what has been the most satisfying element of elections, I would say the high voting in Srinagar. It is a vote of confidence in elections and marks an endorsement of the Indian Constitution,” he told an election rally in Koderma, Jharkhand.

The abolition of J&K’s special status under Article 370 has resulted in bonds being forged among people, he added. However, the candidates in Srinagar reiterated their opposition to do away with Article 370.

The question now being asked: is the turnout in Srinagar on 13 May going to be emulated in Kashmir valley’s two other constituencies Anantnag-Rajouri and Baramulla where voting is scheduled in the next two phases on 20 and 25 May? Baramulla and Anantnag-Rajouri have traditionally seen higher voting than Srinagar.

Jammu and Kashmir has a total of five parliamentary constituencies two in Hindu-majority Jammu region—Jammu and Udhampur which have already voted this time with a turnout of 72.77 and 68.27 per cent respectively.

There is no doubt that restoration of popular rule in Jammu and Kashmir, missing for nearly five years since the region lost its status as a state along with the abrogation of Article 370, through revival of the legislative assembly brooks no delay. The people out there need their elected representatives to whom they can convey their grievances.

It is being said that holding the parliamentary elections in Jammu and Kashmir is part of a calibrated approach to bring back assembly elections in the region.

A reasonably good turnout in parliamentary elections could be the harbinger of successful assembly elections. A return to electoral politics is going to be challenging, no doubt but it will only answer the longing for democratic engagements. The turnout in Srinagar is indicative of that urge.

While Kashmir’s mainstream political parties, including PDP and NC, are united in demanding the restoration of the assembly and popular rule, the Lok Sabha electoral arena is fragmented as they are fighting against each other in the poll. True, the two parties had come together with others to form a joint People’s Alliance for Gupkar but failed to extend it to the Lok Sabha elections and expectedly opted to renew their rivalry.
___________________________________________
The writer is a veteran Indian journalist