The recent fighting in Myanmar's Rakhine state has created panic among the Bangladeshi population living in the bordering areas. The intensity of the conflict between junta forces and the Arakan Army has created new concerns about the national security of the country and the repatriation of more than one million Rohingya sheltered in Bangladesh.

Dhaka has strongly denounced the on-going developments along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. The country also summoned Myanmar’s ambassador to protest the escalating border violence that killed two people on the Bangladeshi side.

Some 327 Members of Myanmar's border and security forces have entered the Bangladesh side. The country is conscious of the possible consequences of this predicament. So far, Bangladesh has taken the appropriate steps, disarmed the fleeing security men, and established communication channels to negotiate their return to Myanmar. The Bangladesh government proceeds with care in returning Myanmar's border and security force personnel.

Conflicts on the Myanmar side of the border will have a multifaceted impact on Bangladesh, including national security, economy, and geopolitics. Bangladesh has done the right thing by engaging with China and asking for its intervention. It is also commendable that Dhaka is in talks with India to ensure that neighbouring Myanmar’s internal conflict does not affect Bangladesh.

The international community was overwhelmingly supportive of Bangladesh providing shelter to a sizable number of Rohingya people. However, the money required for their sustenance has been significantly reduced, contrary to the promises of the donor countries. The Rohingya crisis is no longer treated with the same seriousness that international groups initially viewed it as. So, with fast-dwindling international aid, it is increasingly difficult for the Bangladesh government to accommodate and provide for such a huge number of Myanmar nationals.

Considering the Tatmadaw's continued reluctance to take back the Rohingyas and provide them with citizenship, some think that if the Arakan Army can establish full control over Rakhine, Rohingya repatriation may become easier to some extent. The armed group has already announced recognition of citizenship for Myanmar's Muslim residents (Rohingya) as well as the inclusion of its members who remain in Rakhine as part of the future administration.

But many of the Rohingyas cannot trust this announcement. They claim that the Arakanese ethnic minority in Rakhine has a negative attitude towards the Rohingyas. This perspective will complicate repatriation even more..

India, too, considers the Rakhine conflict a security threat. Since the beginning of October last year, under Operation 1027, the Arakan Army and its allied organizations have occupied the cities of Myanmar bordering Bangladesh, India, China, and Thailand one after another.

The number of refugees seeking asylum in India from these cities has also increased in the last few months as the fighting has intensified. The central government of India is considering erecting a border barrier with Myanmar and withdrawing visa-free border mobility for Myanmar nationals, citing security risks.

The Arakan Army, established in 2009 with the aim of establishing an independent Arakan, now has more than 30,000 soldiers. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) assisted the Arakan Army by training and arming it.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the KIA trained a large part of the armed organisations of the northeastern states of India. In the past, India and Myanmar have carried out joint military operations against such militant groups. That's why recent military successes by the Arakan Army and its allies in Myanmar's Rakhine and Chin provinces raise the prospects of armed insurgency in bordering areas, renewing concerns among Indian policymakers.

Moreover, India has invested heavily in Rakhine to connect northeastern states to the Bay of Bengal. The Arakan Army's victory has put Indian investment at risk. Paletwa and Sittwe are strategically important in India's Act East policy.

Based on strengthened political, economic, and strategic ties with the Myanmar military, India has been implementing the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) with Rs 3,200 crore funding, focusing on these cities.

The project will reduce India's dependence on the Siliguri Corridor and benefit efforts to connect northeastern states with Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal. So, with the Arakan Army claiming to have captured Paletwa, in Chin State, and Pauktawe, near Sittwe, it has become a major concern for the future of the ambitious project.

Rakhine's lack of effective government structure and civil order will continue to be a significant source of worry for the region, particularly in terms of humanitarian, security, economic, and political issues.

A volatile security situation in Rakhine not only raises new migration worries but also presents a long-term security risk to both India and Bangladesh. This necessitates India-Bangladesh cooperation on cross-border security.

Both nations should increase mutual trust and strengthen political and security ties. Given that China is also experiencing comparable challenges, Bangladesh might convene tripartite talks on how to reduce tensions in Rakhine.

It may be a good moment to talk about security issues and reach an agreement on a plan of action for the coming days. Undoubtedly, allowing this conflict to fester and cross over into other nations unchecked would result in regional instability and severe national security challenges for all of Myanmar's neighbours.
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The writer is a security and strategic affairs analyst, Dhaka, Bangladesh