When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on December 29 that the signing of a memorandum of settlement, or the peace accord with northeast India’s oldest insurgent group United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) paves the way for lasting progress in Assam state, his tempered reaction contrasted with the euphoria voiced by his key aide and Home Minister Amit Shah.

The accord marks fruition of negotiations the Indian government’s emissaries have held with ULFA top leaders who have opted to join the peace process over the last 12 years, raising the prospects of a militancy-free Assam which has lived under the shadow of insurgency for 44 years.    

The memorandum of settlement signed by ULFA, the Indian government and Assam authorities headed by Chief Minister Biswa Sarma is the first detailed document containing the nitty-gritty of the terms and conditions which both sides agreed on seeking to end India’s longest-running insurgency since it erupted in 1979 on the demand for an independent Assam.

The ULFA insurgency is inseparably linked to the rampant discontent in Assam about the immigration from erstwhile East Pakistan and Bangladesh over decades.

Hence, the significance of Himanta Biswa Sarma’s remarks to reporters soon after the signing of the peace agreement in New Delhi that the accord promises to safeguard the cultural identity and land rights of the indigenous people of Assam who felt threatened by the influx of immigrants from across the border.

There is also an assurance that representation of the indigenous communities will not be reduced in future delimitation exercises in Assam, he added. According to Sarma, there is a mention of NRC in the settlement, but with the review petition of the Assam government pending before the Supreme Court, no clause on this is included.

Under the peace agreement, ULFA representatives have agreed to abjure the path of violence, lay down their arms and ammunition, disband their armed organisation and lay down arms. Besides, ULFA has also agreed to vacate all camps occupied by its armed cadres and engage in the peaceful democratic process established by law and maintain the integrity of the country.

Since ULFA’s formation in 1979, violence by its cadres has killed more than 10,000 people. The avowed objective of secession from India meant that ULFA’s methods were militant, sparking a cycle of bloodshed that led to two Army operations.

The Indian security forces’ offensives forced the then undivided ULFA to shift its base to Bhutan and subsequently to Bangladesh and Myanmar and Assam was brought under the Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) which gave the security forces sweeping powers to deal with insurgents.

But it also raised a big controversy over the human rights issue, a controversy that still roils the northeast. In 2012, ULFA suffered a split with the Rajkhowa-led faction choosing the path of peace and the process for that started with the pro-talks faction, culminating in the accord that was inked in New Delhi on December 23, 2023.

In the last five years, nine peace and border-related agreements have been signed with different states of the Northeast and these have helped restore peace in large parts of the once-restive region. The Modi government signed a peace agreement with the National Liberation Front of Tripura in 2019, Bru and Bodo tribes in 2020, Karbi in 2021, the Adivasi agreement in 2022, Assam-Meghalaya border agreement, Assam-Arunachal border agreement and agreement with UNLF in 2023 and today. This brings out how the Indian government has been focused on ending the insurgencies in the northeast.

The Modi government’s critics argue what is the big deal in signing a peace accord with the ULFA faction which decided long back to shun violence and abandon their core demand. What should be kept in mind is that it is the same set of people who had waged an armed struggle for years against the state machinery. True, they had a change of heart and gave up violence.

But it was necessary to sustain their interest in peace and dissuade them from returning to their old ways.

That was all about the negotiations between the insurgents and the government for the last 12 years. That was no mean achievement. After all, the Congress government at the Centre under Prime Ministers P V Narasimha Rao in 1992 and Manmohan Singh in 2005 had unsuccessfully tried to bring ULFA, the northeast’s biggest insurgent group after the National Socialist Council of Nagaland, to the negotiating table.

According to official statistics, since 2014, violent incidents in Assam decreased by 87%, deaths by 90% and kidnappings by 84%. Amit Shah said that on record more than 9,000 armed ULFA cadres have surrendered and AFSPA has been withdrawn from 85% areas of Assam. He also said that since 2014, violent incidents in Assam decreased by 87%, deaths by 90% and kidnappings by 84%.

Getting ULFA to sign a peace deal is seen by political observers as a move by BJP keeping in mind the Lok Sabha poll season due early next year and to bring Paresh Baruah's anti-talks faction on board the peace train. Barua and his armed cadres are believed to be hiding in Myanmar and China. However, Himanta Sarma claimed there were feelers that Baruah’s faction may join talks once the pact with the Rajkhowa faction was signed.

Another insurgent outfit Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) also has so far refused to join the peace process in Assam. Indian media reports speak of the Assam government reaching out to Baruah’s ULFA faction for peace talks. But the overtures have run into Barua’s insistence on including a “sovereign” Assam in the agenda of discussions, something the Indian government does not want. Speaking to Assam’s TV channels from his hide-out, Barua on December 30, Barua said just discussing the issue of “sovereign” Assam would not run counter to the Indian Constitution.

The main challenge in prodding the Baruah faction of ULFA and KLO to give up arms lies in sincere and time-bound implementation of all the clauses of the December 23 peace pact with the ULFA (Rajkhowa).

The Indian government, according to Shah, has agreed to provide a big financial package and several big projects for the development of Assam and that the government will comply with all provisions of the agreement. However, the taste of the pudding, as the saying goes, lies in eating. Assam watchers opine the fine details of the peace deal with the Rajkhowa-led ULFA group are expected to be a crucial factor in bringing the Baruah faction on the negotiation table.

No analysis of the peace deal with the Rajkhowa faction of ULFA is complete without recalling the helping hand extended by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government in handing over some top insurgent leaders like Rajkhowa and others in 2009 in what was an important component of security cooperation with India.

Another key ULFA leader Anup Chetia too was repatriated to India after he completed his sentence in a jail in Dhaka. One cannot forget how India’s repeated appeals by India to the erstwhile BNP government led by Begum Khaleda Zia to hand over the ULFA leaders who had taken shelter in Bangladesh went unheeded for years. The Hasina government responded within a year of returning to power in 2009.
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The writer is a veteran Indian journalist