With the Chief Election Commissioner announcing the schedule for the 12th Parliamentary election scheduled to be held on 7 January 2024, the die to elect the 300 parliament members has been cast. The announcement comes amidst a country-wide chaotic and violent shutdown called by the country’s one of the leading political party BNP along with Jamaat-e-Islam and Islami Oikoy Jote. All these ‘political parties’ have formed a coalition of the willing to force the incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina out of power, and install an unconstitutional election-time government called a ‘Neutral Caretaker Government’  that was declared to be against the basic spirit of the Constitution of the country by the Apex Court, known as the 13th Amendment to the constitution.  Amongst about 200 countries of the UN nowhere does such practice exist except Pakistan.

Twelfth Parliamentary Election – the Die Is CastThe incorporation of the election-time Non-party Caretaker government into the electoral system was the outcome of the fall of military ruler General Ershad in 1990 following a mass upsurge. All stakeholders involved in the movement agreed that once Ershad resigns the next three elections will be held under a non-party election-time government to be headed by the Chief Justice of the country. This agreement is commonly known as the agreement of the three alliances.

The problem with this makeshift system began when during the first post-Ershad government of Begum Zia (1991-96) two by-elections in Magura and Dhaka-10 constituencies were held under the constitutional government administered by the Election Commission. But both elections were marred by massive rigging and stuffing of the ballot boxes by the works of the ruling party, the BNP. It all happened in public and the results of the election were obvious. After these two grossly flawed by-elections, Awami League and its allies concluded that no credible election is possible under the incumbent (BNP) government and hence an election time Care Taker Government has to be installed before the next general election. If the then-ruling party did not rig these two by-elections, the subsequent general election of 1996 could be held under the existing constitutional provisions.

However, the ruling party would not agree to go beyond the existing system. Except BNP all major political parties of the country cried foul and decided to boycott the 1996 election. Disregarding the protests and boycott of all political parties an election was held on 15 February 1996 and the only party that participated in that election besides BNP was the newly formed Freedom Party floated by the killers of Bangabandhu. In that election 162 persons were elected uncontested and surprisingly in 16 constituencies there were no contestants. Thus the parliament formed through such a farcical election was an incomplete parliament. What was more deplorable was that one of the killers of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Col (sacked) Abdur Rashid was made the Leader of the Opposition. Hurriedly the parliament session was convened and the 13th Amendment to the constitution was adopted whereby an election-time Caretaker Government provision was incorporated in the Constitution, which now has been declared void by the Apex Court of the country in 2011 prospectively. The parliament lasted for about forty-five days and could meet only four working days before it was dissolved.

The election of 1996 was held under a newly formed Non-party Caretaker government and won by the Awami League and its allies. After the completion of her terms, Sheikh Hasina handed over the power to the new Non-party Caretaker government in 2001. In all fairness, during this period (1996-2001) no attempt was ever made to corrupt the existing electoral system. The election of 2001 was won by Begum Zia and her four-party alliance including Jamaat-e-Islam. Begum Zia and her four-party alliance’s rule was marked by all sorts of controversies. The country witnessed the rise of extreme religious militancy and fundamentalism, the enactment of the tragic episode of 21 August 2004 when an attempt was made to assassinate Sheikh Hasina the then Leader of Opposition by throwing hand grenades at her public meeting. Though all attempts were made to mislead the investigation of this heinous crime, subsequent investigation found Begum Zia’s son Tarique Rahman and his accomplices actively involved in the incident.

During Begum Zia’s tenure of 2001-2006, she began to manipulate the system of the electoral process first by unilaterally increasing the retirement age of the Judges of the Supreme Court to accommodate one of BNP’s previous party functionaries as the Chief of the election time government. Awami League and all political parties protested this manipulation and declared that they would not participate in the forthcoming general election scheduled to be held at the end of 2006. When the election time approached BNP-led government became desperate to hold the election under the manipulated system. To make things worse and to ensure a comeback, the Election Commission enlisted 10.25 million fake voters. Hundreds of party workers were made presiding officers to be deputed on Election Day. Again this created another furore. BNP and its allies remained defiant and that was followed by the infamous unconstitutional 1/11 Caretaker Government which forcibly ruled the country for two years.

The election of 2008 saw Sheikh Hasina and her party returning to power. As mentioned earlier during her 2009-2014 tenure the 13th Amendment to the Constitution was declared void in 2011 but BNP and its allies refused to accept the decision of the Apex court and the decision of the Nation’s Parliament to drop the provision of election time Caretaker Government. They insisted that the election of 2014 must be held under the scrapped system which was not possible. All hell broke loose when the election schedule was declared as happening now. Arson, burning people to death, and destroying pubic property worth millions became a routine practice. Amidst these war-time-like scenarios, the 10th parliamentary election was held on 5 January 2014. BNP and its allies boycotted the election. Awami League again returned to power. Mention must be made of when lawlessness was getting from bad to worse Sheikh Hasina, the then Prime Minister called the Leader of the Opposition in the parliament Begum Zia on the telephone and requested her to join the election-time government. Hasina even offered Begum Zia to take charge of any ministry of her choice but Begum Zia remained unmoved. She even was quite discourteous to the Prime Minster on the telephone. As BNP was in the Parliament at that time, its parliament members could be very much in an election-time constitutional government. Many, even in the BNP hierarchy, see that not taking part in the 2014 parliamentary election or not responding to Prime Minister’s call to join an election time all party government was suicidal for BNP.

After repeating the activities of the pre-2014 election BNP and its allies decided to participate in the 2018 election under the leadership of the veteran political leader Dr. Kamal Hossain. The decision came too late and as such BNP candidates not only were unprepared for the election and in most constituencies, they were not serious on the day of the election. There were no posters, no election agents or volunteers.  To complicate the situation in most constituencies there was more than one candidate. The result was obvious. Awami League candidates won in most of the constituencies. Since then BNP with its all sorts of heterogeneous and diverse political allies is currently back to its pre-2014 opposition - `no election either under the present government keeping Sheikh Hasina in her position’ which under the existing Constitution is not only absurd but only unconstitutional. No one could come up with an answer if the current government resigns as per the demand of the opposition then who will govern the country? How will the constitutional vacuum be filled?

Currently, everyone is talking about a dialogue amongst all active and registered political parties. Earlier when the President invited all the political parties before the new Election Commission was formed, BNP and its allies refused to go. They also boycotted the invitation by the Election Commission for discussion about the forthcoming Parliament election on at least two occasions.  But the opposition declared there can be a dialogue only when the current government steps down! Nothing could be more preposterous. The current impasse can only be overcome through restraint and BNP and its allies taking stock of the whole scenario more practically. What BNP and its allies are trying currently has failed in 2014. It only caused public misery. The economic cost of the country was also staggering. A violence-based movement cannot last forever and the workers will soon suffer from ‘movement fatigue’. There are many inside BNP who are all set to participate in the election. The party itself has quite a decent number of winnable candidates. If the BNP does not take a pragmatic decision vis-à-vis shunning the path of violence and joining the election process, it may implode and disintegrate from within. Hope pragmatism will prevail.

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The writer is an analyst and a commentator