Donald Trump began 2022 on a high. Primary candidates were flocking to Florida to court the former president for a coveted endorsement. His rallies were drawing thousands. A bevy of investigations remained largely under the radar.
One year later, Trump is facing a very different reality.
Instead of staving off challengers, his potential 2024 rivals appear ever more emboldened. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, fresh off a resounding reelection victory, increasingly is seen as Trump’s most formidable competition.
Trump’s subdued campaign announcement has left even former stalwarts wondering whether he is serious about another run for the White House.
“There was a movie called ‘Failure to Launch.’ I think that’s what Donald Trump’s process of running has been so far. He had the announcement, and he hasn’t done anything to back it up since then,” said Michael Biundo, a GOP operative who advised Trump’s 2016 campaign but is steering clear this time.
Trump also defended criticism of his campaign’s slow start. “The Rallies will be bigger and better than ever (because our Country is going to Hell), but it’s a little bit early, don’t you think?” he wrote on his social media site.
While he has eschewed campaign events, the former president has nonetheless courted controversy.
Since his announcement, he has also faced a series of legal losses, including the appointment of a special counsel to oversee the Justice Department’s investigation into the presence of classified documents at Trump’s Florida estate as well as key aspects of a separate inquiry involving Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Trump’s namesake company was convicted of tax fraud last month for helping executives dodge taxes on extravagant perks. In Georgia, a special grand jury appears to be wrapping up its work investigating his efforts to remain in power.
Trump’s potential rivals have spent months laying the groundwork for their own campaigns, visiting early-voting states, speaking before conservative groups and building the kinds of relationships that could benefit them down the line.
Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of The Family Leader, an Iowa-based conservative group, pointed to Republicans such as former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who have made repeat visits to the state.
“They’ve done the early work that is needed to be out in front of Iowans and they’re very well received,” he said, noting the period since Trump announced his candidacy has been “unusually quiet. In a lot of ways, it kind of feels like it’s the announcement that didn’t even happen or doesn’t feel like it happened because there was no immediate buzz. ... I don’t hear from people on he ground, ‘I can’t wait for Trump to run.’ ‘Did you hear Trump’s announcement?’”
He called the poor performance of some Trump-backed candidates in the 2022 midterms a “caution flag” and said that even Trump supporters are open to backing someone else in the 2024 contest.
“For the president, I think he’s definitely going to have to earn the nomination,” he said.
Despite his vulnerabilities, Trump remains the early GOP front-runner. While he is seen as potentially beatable in a one-on-one matchup, he is likely to benefit from a crowded field that splits the anti-Trump votes, just as he did when he ran and won in 2016.
But Biundo, the former Trump campaign adviser, said that after watching likely candidates such as Pence pay visits to early voting states, he too, believes the field is wide open.
“I don’t think Donald Trump has it locked up. I don’t think Ron DeSantis has it locked up. I don’t think anyone has it locked up,” he said. “At this point, it’s an open primary.”
