Fitch lowers India’s FY20 growth forecast again | 2019-06-19 | daily-sun.com

Fitch lowers India’s FY20 growth forecast again

18th June, 2019 09:25:51 printer

NEW DELHI: Fitch on Monday cut India's growth forecast for the current fiscal for a second time in a row to 6.6 per cent as the manufacturing and agriculture sectors showed signs of slowing down over the past year.

The global rating agency had earlier in March lowered the growth estimate for 2019-20 to 6.8 per cent, from 7 per cent projected earlier, on weak momentum of the economy, report agencies.

The cut in growth forecast comes ahead of the presentation of the Union Budget on July 5. Indian economy grew at its slowest pace in five years at 6.8 per cent in 2018-19.

In the January-March quarter, the growth slumped to a five-year low of 5.8 per cent. Following this India lost the fastest growing economy tag to China, which grew at 6.4 per cent in the same quarter.

"We see growth for FY2019-2020 printing at 6.6 per cent, before stepping up to 7.1 per cent in FY 2020-2021 and 7.0 per cent in FY 2021-2022," Fitch Ratings said in its latest Global Economic Outlook.

RBI has projected a growth rate of 7 per cent for the current fiscal. India's GDP growth declined for the fourth consecutive quarter in January-March, with the economy expanding by 5.8 per cent, down from a cyclical high of 8.1 per cent in the March quarter of 2018.

"This is the lowest growth outturn in five years. The slowdown over the past year has been driven by steadily cooling activity in the manufacturing sector and, to a lesser extent, agriculture. Weaker momentum has been mainly domestically driven, though export growth has also faltered more recently," Fitch said.

It said the Reserve Bank has cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent in its June meeting - the third cut so far this year- in the face of weak growth momentum and contained inflation.

"We expect another 25 basis point cut later in 2019, which will push the policy repo rate down to 5.50 per cent. Monetary and regulatory easing from the RBI, along with a recovery in portfolio inflows, should support a recovery in credit to the private sector and reverse the drag from the negative credit impulse," Fitch added.

It said lower lending by non-bank financial companies has weighed on growth in infrastructure and consumption, even though banks have partially compensated by ramping up their lending to the private sector.

"Monetary and regulatory easing from the RBI, along with a recovery in portfolio inflows, should support a recovery in credit to the private sector and reverse the drag from the negative credit impulse," Fitch said.


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