What factors are blocking Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh?

BNP’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman has triggered intense political debate with a Facebook post that despite his mother Khaleda Zia’s critical illness, the decision regarding his return to Bangladesh is “neither unrestricted nor solely under his control.”

His remarks have fueled speculation about what is preventing his return and who holds influence over this decision.

Throughout the day, the comment dominated political discussions. When asked at an afternoon press briefing, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said only, “Everything is explained in Tarique Rahman’s Facebook status. There is nothing more to add.”

Responding to the conversation, Chief Adviser’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam wrote on Facebook that the government has “no restrictions or objections” regarding Tarique Rahman’s return.

Earlier in October, Tarique Rahman told BBC Bangla he would “return soon to take part in the election,” and BNP leaders had indicated that he would return in November. Yet just a day before the month’s end, Tarique Rahman publicly acknowledged he does not have full authority over the decision.

The debate deepened after Sajeeb Wazed Joy, son of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, told BBC Bangla that “undemocratic efforts” were underway to reshape the leadership of Bangladesh’s two major political parties—a process he claimed was being influenced “from abroad.” BNP leaders declined to comment on the claim. One Standing Committee member said only that “party issues and several other factors” were behind Tarique Rahman’s delay, while others hinted he would return once the 13th parliamentary election schedule is announced.

What Tarique Rahman said

Tarique Rahman was jailed for 18 months in 2007 under the military-backed caretaker government and left for London shortly after his release in September 2008. In his memoir, the late BNP leader Moudud Ahmed wrote that Khaleda Zia may have agreed with the then-powerful military establishment that Tarique Rahman would temporarily stay away from politics, possibly even signing a pledge to that effect.

BNP acknowledged in 2018 that Tarique Rahman sought and obtained political asylum in the UK in 2012. For years, BNP blamed the Awami League government’s “false cases and obstacles” for preventing his return. However, even 15 months after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s administration on 5 August 2024, Tarique Rahman has not returned—prompting renewed scrutiny.

Public pressure intensified after Khaleda Zia was recently hospitalised in critical condition. Social media users urged Tarique Rahman to return immediately to be by his mother’s side.

On Saturday morning, BNP issued a statement saying Tarique Rahman “deeply desires” to be with his mother, but his ability to decide is “not unrestricted or fully under his control.”

The statement also noted “sensitive issues” that could not be elaborated on and expressed hope that once the political situation “reaches the expected stage,” he will be able to return.

Shortly afterward, Tarique Rahman posted the same message on Facebook, making it clear that the decision lies beyond his personal authority.

What may be blocking his return

All legal cases against Tarique Rahman and his wife Zubaida Rahman—filed under both the Awami League government and the caretaker administration—have been cleared since August 2024. BNP sources say preparations were also underway for his security, including acquiring bulletproof vehicles and weapons licenses, suggesting no visible legal or security barriers.

However, some BNP insiders claim that a few influential foreign governments may be uneasy about his return. They could not confirm which countries or the specific reasons behind the concerns.

Political analyst Mahiuddin Ahmed said Tarique Rahman’s Facebook post implies “multiple external factors” are influencing the situation. Citing leaked US diplomatic cables, he noted that Washington had previously expressed reservations about Tarique Rahman and argued that Bangladesh’s politics remains shaped significantly by the policy preferences of India and the United States. He also raised questions about whether commitments reportedly made during the 1/11 period—regarding Tarique Rahman’s political role—are still in effect and whether he currently holds a valid Bangladeshi passport.

Sajeeb Wazed Joy’s recent remarks about “undemocratic efforts” to reshape political leadership, combined with Tarique Rahman’s statement, have revived discussion around the controversial “minus-two formula” from the caretaker era. Ahmed said the original agenda resembled a broader “minus-four formula” aimed at curbing dynastic politics. With Sheikh Hasina out of office and Khaleda Zia gravely ill, questions are emerging about whether uncertainty over Tarique Rahman’s return points to the continuation of that idea.

Despite these concerns, BNP leaders maintain that Tarique Rahman will return and lead the party once the election schedule is announced.