Pakistan’s house is on fire, Munir wants to rearrange the furniture

Pakistan’s present status is unprecedented. Never have so many crises—mostly self-made—all erupted at the same time. Recently, the Global Hunger Index put Pakistan as the worst hit in South Asia, warning that acute food crisis is likely to continue.

Externally, a once feted Field Marshal photographed with world leaders and influencers, seems to have gone into hiding, emerging only to threaten India with war, thus endangering the only border which is so far reasonably stable, barring a slim 300-mile border with China.

Most puzzling of all, it is in this chaos, that Pakistani authorities seem to be bent on dividing the country into smaller provinces, apparently for better governance. No one is fooled; this is about power and pelf for the army. Someone is not briefing General Munir about the dangers; perhaps they would much rather not.

Protests on collapse of infra and sheer hunger

First off, the hunger index notes that economic instability and sharp food price inflation and constrained access to food, has led to a serious 33% children as stunted and 16% of the population undernourished. That’s just one statistic. That has to be placed in the context of other serious issues affecting the daily life of common people.

Petrol prices have surged to more than 300 Pakistan rupees, creating an energy crisis. That is not just due to the Iran war; it is the sheer inefficiency of the power sector, with circular debt exceeding 2.3 trillion Pakistan rupees, compounded by cumulative losses and high-capacity payments to Independent Power Producers (IPPs).

It is a mess. Karachi’s major power producer, K-Electric, recently announced another phase of power cuts, in a city already plagued by power outages. Rawalpindi and Lahore that are usually better off, have also been hit. Frustration is growing and protests are aplenty, with parties like the Jamaat leading the charge.

…and the political protests

Another set of protests were fuelled by the continued detention of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, ailing and with little access to his family. Added to that was the imposition of President’s rule in the only PTI-ruled state of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 11 October.

The rallies drew thousands of Khan's supporters marching in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to demand his release and air anti-government criticism fuelled by harsh economic conditions.

Meanwhile, Islamabad was sarcastically called “Containeristan” as authorities brought in more than 1,000 shipping containers, many fortified with spikes, blockaded roads, and sandbags placed on bridges, while a key highway into the capital was closed.

Public gatherings were banned entirely, and 22,000 security personnel were deployed in the capital. That seems to have been an effective overkill. The protests were not as vibrant as expected but soon multiplied in strength in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the emergency came into force.

All major actors—including Imran Khan’s sisters and possibly Chief Minister Sohail Afridi—are now in jail. The justification was given in an official report that claimed that 3,767 terrorism incidents occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during Afridi’s tenure resulting in fatalities of more than 500 security forces and civilians.

The period is not mentioned, nor the fact that KP police have been repeatedly begging Security Forces to leave and allow them to handle the situation themselves. Afridi is further damned by the report noting that the provincial government organised 18 major protest activities, including four long marches, while militancy was escalating.

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir is well and truly occupied

Meanwhile, political leaders in the so-called “Azad” Kashmir were calling for a politically negotiated resolution to the ongoing crisis in Poonch division amid growing concerns over the deteriorating law and order situation in the region. The appeal was made during a meeting hosted by Muslim Conference President Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan at his residence in Rawalpindi. The meeting was attended by several prominent political figures.

Participants expressed serious concerns over the unsettled situation, and called for uninterrupted supplies of essential commodities, particularly food and medicines, and the resumption of communication links and free movement across Poonch division.

In short, as of now the whole area is under a virtual emergency.  Not content with this, the administration has also arrested former Gilgit-Baltistan chief minister and Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) regional office bearers.

Meanwhile, social worker and rights activist from Jammu and Kashmir, Javad Ahmad Beigh has raised the issue of the continued incarceration of members of the Awami Action Committee of Gilgit-Baltistan (AAC-GB), including its chairman, 70-year old Advocate Ehsan Ali, at the 63rd session of the United Nations Human Rights Council.

But the bottom line is that there is little interest, and even less news filtering out of Occupied Kashmir, and the army is pulling out all stops to ensure that the first anniversary of the protests that began last year in October, are not repeated. But it’s a toss-up, is leaders can be kept under detention indefinitely.

Terrorism is still climbing

According to Pakistani data, the country recorded a sharp increase in violence-linked fatalities in the third quarter of 2026, reversing an earlier decline, with casualties surging by 83%.

Balochistan violence alone accounted for nearly 88% of the national increase and overtook Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the worst-hit province in both fatalities and recorded incidents. So-called “Outlaws” fatalities more than doubled, which is meant to point to effective counterterrorism operations. But massively increasing the body count is hardly “effective” counterterrorism, and a reverse revengeful rush can be expected.

Data however also shows the combined death toll among civilians and security personnel also rising by nearly 54%, which means the “outlaws” gave as good as they got.

Meanwhile, the Field Marshal Asim Munir vowed to continue the campaign against “Indian-sponsored terrorist outfits” and “hit them hard wherever they are”, according to the military's media wing. That’s fighting talk. Apparently, its not enough that his western border is in flames. He wants the eastern border to heat up as well.

The western border is on fire – end to end

Meanwhile, the Afghanistan border is heating up. As Pakistan continues its air strikes, Afghanistan seems to have learnt the “drone lesson”.  France24 quotes the Pakistani army as saying it had shot down at least eight fixed-wing drones in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa less than 1,000 metres from the Afghan border.

Media reports note that the Taliban have deployed armed first-person-view (FPV) drones—small quadcopters carrying munitions such as mortar shells—to attack Pakistani positions near the border.

The report identified what appear to be DLE55 55cc single piston engines fitted to the small drones, which are commercially available online. Kabul has also used larger, fixed-wing suicide drones equipped with more powerful engines, potentially capable of flying hundreds of kilometres.

Meanwhile, the Taliban claim several “kills” using these cheap and hardy weapons. Further down the border, things are rapidly getting out of hand.

Pakistan suspended border trade at the Taftan-Gabd-Rimdan crossing, citing security and smuggling concerns.

Notably, this was just before the Field Marshal’s visit to Tehran, where all reports indicate he received a cool reception.

Iranian politicians are asking why Munir is in Iran so often and that he should be asked not to come in future. So much for the great mediation effort.

Meanwhile, Pakistani exports of perishable goods have resumed, but Iranian LPG “imports” (i.e smuggling) remained on hold, causing severe disruption to both sides.

Meanwhile, Tehran says it may make 100 hectares of land at Chabahar port available to Afghanistan for two to five years for imports and transit activities.

Iranian Member of Parliament Shahriari who is a member of the Iranian National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said Afghanistan has no access to international waters and that the land could be made available to the Afghan side to import goods through Chabahar port and transport them through Iranian territory. That’s not going to be music to Rawalpindi’s ears.

And it is in the middle of all this chaos, that General Munir wants to break up the country into small pieces. As The Economist notes, the “Trump -Flattering” head of the Armed Forces seem to want a division from four provinces to perhaps 12 or 15 or even 160 small units.

These units will be ruled by easily malleable small “chieftains” or nominees of the army—most probably a perch for retired senior officer—and essentially not only finish off the political power of all major political parties, but do away with the necessity of parting with money from the national exchequer to fund the provinces as mandated by law.

Further, it also means that the cash-rich army has access to all the resources of these states. Munir can then be well and truly called Emperor of all he sees. But that will be for a short while.

Not even the perpetually bowing Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif can agree to this. A political backlash is certain, both against the army and between themselves; in essence: total chaos. It is unbelievable. It is time for Munir to do a “walkabout” of his country and see the reality. Else he may have to walk into the great unknown for good.

The writer is a former director of India’s National Security Council Secretariat

Source: Firstpost