Tarique Rahman must find a way to understand the pulse of the youth of Bangladesh

On 25 December, Tarique Rahman, the acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), returned to Bangladesh after a 17-year exile in London, imposed in September 2008 by an unelected, military-backed government. Before being forced onto a London-bound flight, he was reportedly subjected to physical torture in custody and compelled to sign an undertaking pledging permanent withdrawal from politics. More than a decade and a half later, Rahman’s return was marked by millions of supporters turning out to receive him — an unmistakable signal of his enduring political relevance.

Rahman assumed the role of acting BNP chairman while his mother, former prime minister Khaleda Zia, was imprisoned under Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) government. Her treatment during this period stands as one of the most shameful episodes in Bangladesh’s recent political history. And Rahman himself was named in more than 80 cases under that regime.

Against this backdrop, Rahman’s conduct since the fall of the authoritarian AL government has reflected growing political maturity. Rather than invoking retribution, he has, on multiple occasions, called for restraint, unity, and reconciliation — language rarely heard in a political culture shaped by cycles of vengeance. His emphasis on national unity and democratic discipline hopefully suggests an effort to reframe the country’s political future rather than merely settling past scores.

In a brief speech following his return, Rahman again appealed for unity among democratic forces, stressing the need to ensure peace, order, and the safety of citizens. He also alluded to a “plan” to meet the people’s aspirations, though he stopped short of providing details.

What is clear is that Bangladesh now stands at a decisive juncture. In this moment of political transition, Rahman is no longer simply a returning exile or opposition figure. He may well emerge as one of the most consequential actors shaping the country’s future direction. Whether that direction leads towards democratic renewal or renewed instability will depend largely on how he chooses to wield his influence.

Notably, his return was preceded by the murder of political activist Sharif Osman Bin Hadi, along with other incidents of unrest across the country. Clearly, both domestic and foreign forces appear to be seeking to destabilise Bangladesh, most likely to jeopardise the upcoming elections scheduled for February 12, 2026. Meanwhile, although the interim government assumed responsibility amid high public expectations, its performance has nonetheless proved to be far more questionable than initially anticipated. As a result, the governance expectations of Bangladeshis since the July uprising remain unmet. Given that the BNP is the clear favourite to win the coming elections, Rahman and his party will face significant pressure to ensure that good governance is finally established in the country.

The BNP, meanwhile, is also in urgent need of soul-searching. Accusations of extortion and other criminal behaviour by its activists — similar to those levelled against other parties — have persisted since the AL’s fall. Many analysts therefore believe that Rahman’s foremost task will be to bring party leaders and activists under a single command by curbing criminal behaviour, reducing internal divisions, restoring discipline, and ensuring that party decisions are enforced at all levels — no easy task given the entrenched structures and practices of Bangladesh’s political parties.

Another challenge for him — if history is any indication — will be to ensure that he is not surrounded by sycophants who seek to build the party around a cult of personality centred on him. Hasina’s obsession with cultivating such a cult around herself and her late father, and the consequences that ultimately followed, should serve as a stark warning, even if there is no guarantee that lessons will be learnt.

Finally, a broader look at developments across southern Asia — including Nepal, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Thailand — highlights perhaps the most pressing challenge Rahman faces: The condition and aspirations of young people. Across the region, governments have been shaken by youth-led movements. The causes are clear, even if they vary in form and intensity. Corruption, mismanagement, poor economic prospects, and precarious futures have pushed young people in particular — and citizens more broadly — to a point where they feel that “enough is enough.”

Bangladesh is currently experiencing a demographic dividend, meaning it has a larger youth population than any other age group. Yet many young people face a future that appears bleak. Opportunities for upward mobility are scarce, and much of their anger stems from this reality, compounded by a growing awareness of rights that governments have ignored for decades.

Under these circumstances, Rahman must find a way to understand the pulse of young Bangladeshis and overcome entrenched special interest groups that would surely resist structural changes aimed at creating a more “meritocratic Bangladesh,” in line with the demands of the ordinary youth, against the desire of old elites to cling to positions of power and influence.

The writer is a Bangladeshi analyst, currently based in Canada