Pakistan’s population: A ticking time bomb

Pakistan’s population is increasing by around 6 million people every year, meaning the number of people in Norway is being added every year to the South Asian country's 260 million population.

Pakistan’s population is growing at 2.55%, which is one of the highest population growth rates in Asia, surpassed only by a few countries in Africa.

The growth rate is well above the universally accepted replacement level fertility rate of 2.1%.

A large population that was supposed to be a demographic dividend has in fact become a demographic liability.

At a growth rate of 2.7%, Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth effectively translates into no real per-capita growth. On the employment front, the situation is even more alarming.

According to World Bank data from June 2025, over 107.95 million or 45% Pakistanis live below the poverty line. The unemployment rate in the country currently stands at around 7%. With around 50% of the population qualifying for labour force participation, and an annual population increase of 6 million, Pakistan must create at least 3 million new jobs every year just to stay afloat.

The bulk of Pakistan’s workforce is absorbed by agriculture and manufacturing, the only two sectors capable of employing people at this scale. Unfortunately, both the sectors are suffering immensely.

According to official figures, agricultural growth in 2024-25 was around 0.56%, while the crop sub-sector witnessed negative growth of 6.82%. Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) contracted by 1.5% during July–March FY2025.

This not only worsens unemployment, but also undermines exports, the balance of payments, and fiscal revenue, especially given that the government’s primary balance this year is based on aggressive LSM growth assumptions. All of this will result in massive unemployment and a law-and-order crisis. It is a time bomb waiting to explode.

LSM and agriculture have been crippled by ad hoc policies and the absence of a coherent long-term strategy. High energy costs, unbearably high taxation, elevated interest rates, and rising labour costs have made Pakistani exports uncompetitive in global markets, which are already under pressure due to US tariffs and global volatility.

The result has been falling exports and capital flight to more competitive regions. If this continues, Pakistan will once again face severe balance-of-payments issues and be on the verge of bankruptcy before we know it.

Thomas Malthus predicted in 1798 that the world’s population would outpace agricultural production, leading to a doomsday scenario. A small technological invention, the tractor, staved off this outcome due to a phenomenal increase in agricultural productivity. Will a similar deus ex machina come to rescue Pakistan? The answer might lie in the country’s religiously sanctioned cultural attitudes, national economic priorities, governance quality, incentive structures to control population, education profile and women empowerment.

Pakistan once had a Ministry of Population Planning and Welfare, which has now been reduced to an attached division of the Ministry of Health. The provinces have different arrangements, such as Punjab’s Population Welfare Department and Sindh’s Population Welfare Department, which works under the Ministry of Health and Population Welfare. In the case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan as well, population welfare departments exist as independent entities. The devolution of population welfare functions to the provinces should have yielded better outcomes but instead population planning governance has become fragmented and effete.

The weak population planning performance, despite several programs and plans, reflects the lack of seriousness accorded to this issue. Pakistan’s “Total Fertility Rate” (TFR), which indicates the number of children likely to be borne by a woman of childbearing age, was 6.1 in 1994 and has been brought down to 3.6 as per World Bank data for 2023–24. This ratio needs to be scaled down to 2.0 in order to attain zero population growth and stabilise overall numbers.

Although Pakistan’s national security policy regards the young population cohort as an asset, the reality is that due to poor planning and lack of job opportunities, this asset has become a liability. According to a PIDES study, with an economic growth rate of 2.38 per cent and 1.8 million job seekers each year, Pakistan requires an annual growth rate of 7 per cent to absorb new entrants into the job market. The employment-to-population ratio will decline sharply in the absence of structural economic reforms. The impact on food security is equally severe, with rich cropland being encroached upon by rapid urbanization. Combined with reduced soil fertility, agricultural productivity is declining, leading to food shortages.