US sends 3rd carrier, 10,000 troops to Mideast as Iran readies stronger response

The US is dispatching up to 9,000-10,000 sailors and Marines aboard a flotilla of warships to the Middle East, a major naval buildup that could bring three American aircraft carriers to the region by late October or November as President Donald Trump warns that renewed strikes against Iran remain possible.

The move, confirmed by US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations and reported by major US media outlets, marks one of the largest concentrations of US naval power in the Gulf and Arabian Sea since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Iran is also preparing a broader and more forceful response than it put up before the ceasefire amid the nearly stalled war diplomacy and prospects for renewed US large-scale attacks after 3 November.

Simultaneously, Tehran is continuing a diplomatic push that Iranian officials privately see as unlikely to succeed.

The planning reflects a conviction within Iran's leadership that any renewed US campaign must be met with a stronger response than before, even as both sides seek to avert escalation through talks.

Senior commanders are reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond US-linked assets to countries that support US military operations and possibly to locations outside the Middle East, according to three senior Iranian officials and an insider familiar with the discussions.

A swelling US armada

The new US deployment centres on two main groups now en route from the Pacific: The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which departed San Diego on 27 September with its air wing, destroyers and the guided-missile cruiser USS Chosin.

Then there is the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group, carrying about 2,000 Marines of the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard the landing ships USS John P Murtha and USS Anchorage, which sailed on 28 September.

Together, these formations carry around 8,000 sailors and roughly 2,000 Marines, according to US officials.

Once they arrive — expected by the end of November — they will join the USS George HW Bush and USS George Washington, which are already operating in the Arabian Sea and adjacent waters with the USS Boxer amphibious group and several destroyers.

If all three carriers remain in theater at once, the Middle East would host three US carrier strike groups for the first time since April, before a fragile ceasefire collapsed and fighting resumed in late summer.

However, it’s not immediately clear if the third carrier strike group is intended to relieve another aircraft carrier in the region or add to the force posture there.

The USS George Washington relieved the USS Abraham Lincoln in August after its record-setting long deployment and allegedly bleak conditions for its crew. The USS George Washington is typically deployed in the Pacific Ocean and is ported in Japan.

Due to harrowing reports of weary sailors attempting to jump overboard amid shortages of critical supplies thanks to Iranian strikes that disrupted supply lines in the region, particularly a key port in Bahrain, the Pentagon made plans for the USS Theodore Roosevelt to be ready for a long stay.

This included maximizing its stash of food, hygiene, retail, and other critical supplies before its deployment, something Navy leadership touted last month.

They also took steps to ensure sailors will have more reliable communication with their families back at home and better quality of life amenities aboard the aircraft carrier.

Iranian preparations and also concerns

Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Tehran remained uncertain whether President Donald Trump would launch another major campaign or opt for more limited attacks, such as strikes on nuclear facilities.

"But they seem determined not to respond symbolically to a symbolic move and instead to escalate in the hope of reestablishing deterrence," Azizi said.

Tehran is also weighing the political risks for Trump of a prolonged conflict. Polls show the war has been unpopular with Americans, while higher fuel prices remain a concern ahead of the midterm elections.

Two of the officials said Tehran had instructed allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to be ready to support Iran in the event of a renewed large-scale US attack.

However, Tehran is still keeping open a channel for negotiations even as it readies for a wider war.

Underlying Iran's calculations is a second concern: whether its economy can withstand a prolonged confrontation under a US blockade that has cut off oil exports, a critical source of revenue. Years of sanctions and mounting economic hardship have already placed growing pressure on ordinary Iranians.

At last week's United Nations General Assembly in New York, Tehran submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators that, if accepted, could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities across the region within seven days.

Trump said on Saturday he had rejected the proposal. Iranian state media reported, however, that a US response was delivered to Tehran through Qatar on Tuesday and is now under review.

Iranian sources said Washington wants Iran's disputed nuclear programme included in negotiations, but Tehran insists that the nuclear talks can only begin after its seven conditions are met, not before.

"Even if Iran does not reject the US response outright and indirect talks continue, it is very unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement," said one of the officials.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said prospects for diplomacy remained limited.

"Iran cannot afford continuation of US blockades that could be a major game changer essentially taking the oxygen out of the lungs of the regime...escalation at this point is conceivable,” Vatanka said.

Since hostilities began, the conflict has alternated between lulls and renewed strikes, killing thousands of civilians, degrading Iran's military capabilities and damaging an already fragile economy.

For the United States, the war has failed to achieve Trump's shifting goals while depleting the Pentagon's missile stockpiles.

Iran and its allies have sought to raise the cost for Washington by widening the conflict across the region, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and increasing risks to global energy markets.

Iran has launched drone and missile attacks against US allies in the Gulf, while its Houthi allies in Yemen have targeted Saudi interests. The Houthis' advance toward Bab el-Mandeb has opened a second pressure point on global energy routes, giving the Iran-aligned group leverage over the southern gateway to the Red Sea.

An insider close to the decision-making process said the combination of military pressure and economic restrictions was becoming increasingly difficult for the clerical rulers to sustain.