Six consequences after six months of war in Iran

Six months after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the war that President Donald Trump has called a "little excursion" has become a deeply unpopular stalemate that threatens to derail his presidency.

Iran has not surrendered, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and there is no clear path to ending the conflict that Trump once predicted would be over in four weeks.

Now, in apparent recognition that further military strikes won't force concessions from Iran, the US is reverting to a campaign of economic pressure in hopes of further weakening Iran's government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told allies it's unlikely the US will launch new attacks "for the time being."

What happens next is unclear but many of the war's probable enduring consequences — for the United States, Iran and the global economy — are already apparent.

Here are six of those:

1. Trump is paying a political price

The war was unpopular at the outset and has become more so. Trump's approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, as rising gas prices have undercut his 2024 campaign promise to lower costs for Americans.

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Trump, who campaigned on a promise to end wars, has argued that Iran's missile buildup and nuclear ambitions required action, but he has not persuaded most voters. Just 31% of the country approve of the conflict, according to the polling. That's a lower number than other recent US conflicts at a similar stage, including the war in Afghanistan, which had approval ratings above 50% for years in Gallup polls.

Voter anger over high prices poses a problem for Trump's Republican Party before November's midterm elections, when it must defend narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress.

The conflict has also widened a rift between more isolationist Republicans, who want to see a quick end, and Republican lawmakers who believe Trump should keep military pressure on Tehran.

2. The war has shaken the global economy — but less than feared

The US and Israeli attacks triggered immediate alarm because the Strait of Hormuz – which narrows to about 21 miles (34 km) wide between Iran and Oman — carries roughly a fifth of the world's energy supplies. The disruption sent oil prices sharply higher and prompted fears of a global downturn.

The damage has been significant but less severe than many economists initially feared. The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast twice since the war began and now expects the world economy to grow by 3.0% this year, compared with its 3.3% forecast in January.

Still, the global economy has proved more resilient than during the oil shocks of the 1970s. Major economies are less energy-intensive than they were then, and strong spending and investment — including a continuing boom in artificial intelligence — have helped cushion the blow.

3. Iran is wounded but not defeated

Iran's military and economy have suffered severe damage, but Tehran can still launch attacks and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

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In May, the top US military commander for the Middle East, Admiral Brad Cooper, told Congress that US forces had destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels and disabled 82% of its air-defense systems. He said Iran's air force, which had previously flown up to 100 sorties a day, was no longer conducting missions.

Even so, Iran retains drones and missiles and has successfully attacked shipping and US military installations around the region.

In March, Reuters reported that the United States could determine with certainty that it has destroyed only about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal. The status of around another third was less clear but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, sources told Reuters at the time.

The war has killed thousands and deepened Iran's economic crisis, worsening inflation and disrupting trade. In July, food inflation hit 128% year-on-year, according to Iran’s Statistical Center.

But it has also pushed political divisions into the background and prompted a tougher crackdown on dissent.

4. The Middle East has been destabilized, exposing US allies

The US-Israeli war was meant to remove Iran as a threat to the Middle East, but analysts say it has instead emboldened Tehran and left the region less secure.

Iranian missile and drone attacks on US-allied Gulf Arab states hit US military and diplomatic facilities and disrupted air travel.

Iran's attacks on shipping, combined with a Houthi blockade targeting Saudi-linked traffic in the Red Sea, have raised insurance and transport costs across the region. The effect extends well beyond individual attacks on vessels, disrupting supply chains and adding to uncertainty for Gulf economies.

5. It could take longer for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon

US and Israeli attacks during an earlier assault in June 2025 and in the opening phase of the current war badly damaged three of Iran's known enrichment plants and sites suspected of weapons-related work, while Israeli strikes have killed leading nuclear scientists.

US intelligence assessments in May put Iran's estimated nuclear "breakout time" — the time needed to produce enough fissile material for a bomb — at up to one year, from up to six months before the war.

Preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is Trump's top stated goal for the war.

But the true state of the program is uncertain because UN inspectors have not returned to Iran's nuclear sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to verify the location of roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% since the 2025 strikes. That stockpile could potentially be further enriched to weapons grade at a covert facility.

Iran has long denied seeking a nuclear bomb.

6. US military readiness has been diminished

Since the war started, 18 US service members have been killed and over 750 injured.

The US military has also lost drones and aircraft, both to Iranian fire and accidents. A May Congressional Research Service report said 42 US military aircraft had been lost in the conflict.

Munitions are a major concern. Reuters reported the military has used "virtually all" of its global supply of certain precision missiles. A Center for Strategic and International Studies estimate said that by July, the United States had used about 65% of its Patriot interceptors and reduced its THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) interceptor stockpile by at least 38%.

Washington has shifted fighter jets, warships and other assets to the Middle East from Europe and the Asia-Pacific, extending deployments and raising questions about readiness elsewhere.

The USS Gerald R Ford spent more than a year deployed, its longest deployment since the Vietnam War, while lawmakers raised concerns about conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln after 200 consecutive days at sea. The carrier was replaced last week by another carrier that had been in the Pacific, highlighting how the war is stretching US assets.