Progressive El-Sayed wins Michigan primary in jolt to Democrats

The Democratic Party's progressive wing scored a high-profile victory when Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's US Senate primary, according to media projections on Wednesday, giving its anti-establishment message a boost ahead of November's midterm elections.

El-Sayed, whose message focused on healthcare, the economy and an end to unconditional military aid to Israel, was the first progressive to win a statewide primary in a state that President Donald Trump carried in 2024. He will face Republican former congressman Mike Rogers in November.

Tuesday's vote, billed as a defining test of the party's direction, became an election-night cliffhanger, with El-Sayed notching a narrow victory over US Representative Haley Stevens, a moderate supported by Democratic leaders and pro-Israel groups.

With 99% of the estimated votes counted as of 10am ET (1400 GMT) on Wednesday, El-Sayed was leading Stevens 48.5% to 47.5%, according to the Associated Press. The AP and CNN both called the race for El-Sayed, hours after NBC News did the same.

"Money out of politics. Money in your pocket. Medicare for All," El-Sayed wrote on X early on Wednesday, declaring victory.

Midwestern swing state

The race served as a battleground between progressives and moderates over support for Israel, an issue that has played out in primaries nationwide this year. But unlike contests in liberal bastions, this was a statewide race in a Midwestern swing state for a seat Democrats must win if they have any hopes of securing a Senate majority in November.

Stevens benefited from tens of millions of dollars in spending by a pro-Israel super PAC, and her supporters argued she was the more electable candidate in the general election.

Analysts had said one significant factor in El-Sayed's favour was that Michigan is home to some of the country's largest Arab American communities, where hostility to Israel runs deep.

The result is likely to be scrutinized by prospective 2028 presidential contenders searching for a message to reconnect with voters after the party's loss to Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

El-Sayed's victory could intensify debate within Democratic ranks over the political appeal of economic populism, anti-establishment campaigning and a tougher approach toward Israel.

Tuesday's results are consistent with broader signs of a leftward shift among Democratic voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday found self-described liberal voters now make up 71% of Democrats, up from 55% in 2012, while large majorities said universal healthcare, expanded abortion access and higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy are essential policy positions.

The poll also found deep Democratic scepticism of US support for Israel. Only 16% of Democrats backed continued military and economic aid to Israel, while 57% opposed it, suggesting El-Sayed's criticism of US policy aligned with views that have become increasingly common within the party.

Ballots cast in Michigan and four other states

Voters in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington state also decided on US House candidates in Democratic primaries on Tuesday, including a handful that could determine whether the party retakes the lower chamber. Four of those races are considered general election toss-ups.

In a Lansing-area swing district in Michigan, progressive climate activist William Lawrence won the Democratic nomination after two moderate candidates split the center-left vote. Lawrence will face US Representative Tom Barrett in November.

Democratic US Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington and state Senate Republican Leader John Braun advanced to the general election in the state's top-two primary. The progressive candidate, Brent Hennrich, finished a distant third.

In two Virginia districts expected to be competitive in November, Democrats nominated former US Representative Elaine Luria and Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor.

In Missouri, progressive Democrat Cori Bush failed in her bid to take back her seat from US Representative Wesley Bell in a rematch of 2024. A pro-Israel super PAC spent more than $8 million to help oust Bush, a vocal critic of Israel, in 2024 and more than $3 million this year to keep Bush out of Congress. Bell is heavily favoured to win in November, as the St Louis-area district is safely Democratic.