Carney clinches majority government in Canadian special elections

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority for his Liberal government on Monday, a win that he has said will help him deal more effectively with the trade war started by US President Donald Trump.

It will also likely mean Carney, who took office with no political experience and has earned global praise for his efforts to band middle-power nations together, won't have to worry about an election for years.

Capping off an extraordinary few months in Canada when several opposition members joined Carney's Liberals, his party said in a statement it had secured seats in all three districts – known as ridings.

Those were the Ontario ridings of University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest which have long voted Liberal as well as a hard-fought seat in Terrebonne, Quebec.

The wins take Carney's Liberals to 174 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.

"This is a decisive moment for Canada — one that calls for serious leadership, a strong economic plan, and leaders from all backgrounds standing up to build a better future," the Liberal party said in a statement.

The Liberals have relied on selective support from the Conservatives to pass economic and trade-related legislation in the last year.

“He will be able to pass legislation without having to go to the opposition to secure enough votes,” said Andrew McDougall, assistant professor in Canadian politics at the University of Toronto.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre took to X to express his dissatisfaction at both the process and the result: "The Carney Liberals did not win a majority government through a general election or today's by-elections. Instead, it was won through backroom deals with politicians who betrayed the people who voted for them.

"While the Prime Minister spent the year on this cynical power grab, he has doubled the deficit, and given Canada the worst grocery prices and housing costs in the G7," he wrote.

The result means Carney has solidified his grip on leading Canada until at least 2029, when national elections are due to be held next. The last time a federal government had a majority in Parliament was under Justin Trudeau from 2015 to 2019.

His position had been strengthening gradually as five opposition legislators in five months defected to the Liberals. Only the governments led by John A Macdonald, Canada's first prime minister, and Jean Chretien have seen more politicians defect to the ruling party.

'Large liberal tent'

Last Wednesday, longtime Conservative politician Marilyn Gladu switched parties to join Carney’s government, saying Canada needs “a serious leader who can address the uncertainty that has arrived due to the unjustified American tariffs.”

Gladu, a former chemical engineer who has previously drawn criticism for promoting unproven scientific treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic, opposing a ban on conversion therapy and suggesting the military be used to end Indigenous-led protests against oil pipelines, thanked Carney for inviting her into “the large Liberal tent.”

The University-Rosedale seat was previously held by former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who resigned after being appointed as economic development advisor in Ukraine.

The Liberals also said they won a special election to replace former Liberal lawmaker Bill Blair, who resigned after he was appointed ambassador to the United Kingdom.

In the third riding in Terrebonne, Quebec, the Liberals defeated the separatist Bloc Quebecois.

Laura Stephenson, chair of the political science department at the University of Western Ontario, noted that while Trudeau had shifted the party to the left and prioritized issues like reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, rights for minority groups and immigration, there are more pressing matters for Carney, a more centrist leader.

“He is focused on helping Canada survive the economic turmoil, not remaking society,” she said. “When we’re in tough times like this, there are different calculations being made.”

Recent polling from Nanos shows more than half of Canadians prefer Carney as their prime minister, with just 23% picking Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Before Carney became leader of the Liberal Party last year, Poilievre had been projected to win the next election by more than 20 points.

“Carney has done a fairly good job showing Canadians he can handle Trump,” said McDougall of the University of Toronto. “He’s shown Canadians he’s a competent manager of the economy and the country,” he said. “And so far Canadians have not been overly impressed by the alternatives.”