Govt framing 3-phase plan to secure energy future

The government is drawing up a three-phase roadmap to tackle Bangladesh’s worsening energy crunch, with an immediate push to rein in load-shedding, secure fuel for the peak-demand season and build strategic reserves as it seeks to underpin faster economic growth by 2029.

The first phase targets bringing the current power crisis under control by November-December, while the second will prepare for higher electricity demand during the summer. The third will establish a longer-term energy security framework capable of supporting economic growth of around 8% by the third quarter of 2029.

Prime Minister’s Adviser on Finance and Planning Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir told the Daily Sun that the immediate priority was to “stabilise the load-shedding situation as quickly as possible”.

The second phase will assess requirements for oil, coal, LNG, gas and LPG and ensure adequate supplies ahead of the peak-demand season. In the longer term, the government plans to maintain fuel reserves equivalent to around three months, or one quarter, of requirements.

“We are considering a benchmark under which the reserve should be sufficient for three months, or one quarter,” 

Titumir said, noting that Bangladesh had previously lacked a systematic reserve arrangement.

A dashboard-style monitoring system will also track energy availability, demand and reserves against predetermined benchmarks.

Load-shedding adds pressure

The roadmap comes as load-shedding has surged despite Bangladesh having nearly twice as much installed generation capacity as current electricity demand.

Power Division data showed demand at 16,176MW at 3pm on Tuesday against supply of 13,917MW, leaving a shortfall of 2,259MW. Load-shedding recently peaked at around 3,500MW, with consumers in some rural areas reportedly enduring eight to 14 hours or more of outages a day.

The situation has improved somewhat following government measures, officials said.

Bangladesh has 133 power plants, including 78 private-sector plants, with total grid-connected generation capacity of around 29,593MW. Gas-fired plants account for 12,472MW, or 42%, followed by coal-fired plants with 7,203MW (24%) and furnace-oil plants with 5,641MW (19%). Diesel plants have 768MW, renewable energy 1,129MW and imported electricity, including from Adani, 2,696MW.

The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) is preparing to generate up to around 4,000MW from furnace-oil-fired plants. Plants have initially been instructed to operate at around 80% capacity, with utilisation potentially rising to 90% depending on the situation.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has been asked to maintain adequate furnace oil stocks as power-sector demand has risen by up to 35%.

Domestic gas at heart of strategy

The government is also putting greater emphasis on raising domestic gas production to reduce costly dependence on LNG imports.

Petrobangla data show that 29.78 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable gas reserves have been assessed. Around 22.41 TCF had been extracted by June, leaving approximately 7.37 TCF as of June 30.

Domestic production has fallen from around 2,500 million cubic feet per day (MMcfd) six years ago to about 1,600 MMcfd, even as demand from power plants and industries has risen.

To reverse the decline, Petrobangla is implementing a 150-well drilling and workover programme. Twenty-nine wells have already been completed, securing around 270.8 MMcfd of additional gas resources, of which about 125.3 MMcfd is currently being supplied to the national grid.

Eight more wells are under drilling or workover operations and could add another 90 MMcfd. The remaining 113 wells will be taken up gradually for exploration, development and workover.

Petrobangla expects the full programme to add around 1,401 MMcfd of gas production by 2030, increasing the domestic share of supply and reducing dependence on LNG.

Petrobangla Director (PSC and Operation & Mines) Engr Md Shoyeb said the well programme was being pursued alongside extensive exploration.

“Through the collection, processing and analysis of seismic data in different gas fields and blocks, new leads and drillable prospects are being identified,” he said. “Initiatives are being taken to drill exploration wells quickly in these promising areas.”

3,000 sq km seismic surveys

The exploration drive includes around 3,000 square kilometres of planned and ongoing 2D and 3D seismic surveys.

BAPEX is conducting a 660-square-kilometre 3D seismic survey in Char Fasson, while a 2D survey covering around 1,450 square kilometres is under way in Habiganj and Bakhrabad. Plans also include 255 line-kilometres of 2D and 632 square kilometres of 3D surveys in those areas.

Following the discovery of gas at Jamalpur-1, BAPEX is preparing a project for a 460-square-kilometre 3D seismic survey there. Another 882-square-kilometre 3D survey has been proposed in Lamigaon, Lalabazar, Doarabazar South and Rashidpur South in Sylhet.

“Seismic surveys will not be the end of the process. Once promising geological structures are identified, exploration wells will be drilled in those areas,” Shoyeb said.

LNG bill hits $23b

Bangladesh has increasingly relied on imported LNG since 2018 to bridge the domestic gas supply gap.
Petrobangla’s accounts division shows that the country spent around Tk277,452 crore, or approximately $23 billion, on LNG imports between FY19 and FY26, while the government provided around Tk51,366 crore in subsidies.

Total gas demand is now around 4,000 MMcfd, while the national grid recently received about 2,395 MMcfd, including 792 MMcfd from LNG, leaving a shortfall of roughly 1,600 MMcfd.

Officials warn that without a substantial rise in domestic production, LNG could account for around 60-70% of Bangladesh’s gas supply by 2030, further swelling the import bill and putting pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

Experts seek international expertise

Energy expert and Independent University, Bangladesh Vice-Chancellor Prof M Tamim said the country’s gas fields were already in a declining production phase and needed advanced technology, expertise and significant investment.

“BAPEX does not have sufficient capacity for this. So, instead of relying only on BAPEX, Bangladesh should consider using the technology, knowledge and investment of experienced international companies such as Chevron,” he said.

Dr Tamim said drilling new wells alone would not be enough as production from existing fields was declining simultaneously. He suggested developing smaller gas-bearing layers within existing fields and highlighted the potential of the Chhatak gas field in Sylhet, where preliminary estimates indicate 600 billion to 1 trillion cubic feet of gas could be present.

Energy security tied to investment

Titumir said energy security was central to the government’s wider industrialisation and investment strategy.
The government wants Bangladesh to become a manufacturing hub and regional gateway, requiring predictable energy supplies alongside policy continuity, access to finance, deregulation and improved connectivity.

He also stressed the need to diversify energy infrastructure beyond Chattogram and Matarbari, with facilities around Mongla being considered as alternative supply channels.

The three-phase roadmap is ultimately aimed at securing reliable electricity and fuel supplies, reducing dependence on costly imported energy and creating a stronger foundation for Bangladesh’s economic growth.

The reporter can be reached at: [email protected]