South Asia’s Trust Deficit: Time to Connect People

South Asia is home to more than two billion people, roughly one in four people on the planet. With such a vast population concentrated in one region, its peace and stability are a global concern. Any deterioration in relations among South Asian countries can have economic, humanitarian and security consequences far beyond the region. South Asia’s history gives ample reason for concern. Over the past five decades, the region has experienced repeated India-Pakistan crises, decades of war in Afghanistan, civil war in Sri Lanka, Nepal’s Maoist insurgency, conflict in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, insurgencies, communal violence and recurring political upheaval.
No single figure can capture five decades of war and civil unrest, as conflicts are measured differently. Yet available data give some sense of the scale. According to UCDP and Our World in Data, between 1989 and 2024, armed conflicts claimed around 320,000 lives in Afghanistan, 65,000 in Sri Lanka, 58,000 in India, 46,000 in Pakistan, 12,000 in Nepal and 1,500 in Bangladesh. Beyond these, half a million deaths lie the wider costs of displacement, divided families, lost livelihoods and disrupted development.
Even with that painful record, the region is not clearly moving closer together. A lower-volume but persistent anxiety is taking shape around what can be called ‘persistent distrust and social disconnectedness’. Recent Pew Research Center results make the worry visible. Pew’s 2024 survey in Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka shows how unevenly neighbours are viewed. In Bangladesh, favourable views of India slipped from 70 per cent in 2014 to 57 per cent in 2024, while views of Pakistan split more sharply, 40 per cent favourable and 32 per cent unfavourable. India’s own view of Bangladesh was cooler: 35 per cent favourable, and an unusually large 39 per cent saying they had no opinion. The India-Pakistan rupture runs deeper still. In 2023, 74 per cent of Indians held an unfavourable view of Pakistan, dropping to 61 per cent in 2024. That distrust has a long echo on the other side as well: in 2014, 71 per cent of Pakistanis viewed India unfavourably, with only 13 per cent favourable. Sri Lanka looks less bleak by comparison, with 65 per cent viewing India favourably in 2024 and 44 per cent saying the same about Pakistan.
Pew’s 2024 survey did not cover Pakistan or Nepal, which narrows the chance for clean region-wide comparison. Yet Pew’s 2026 Social Hostilities Index, while measuring a different phenomenon, widens the lens and darkens the picture. On a 10-point scale for religion-related social hostility, India scored 8.8, Bangladesh 7.8, and Pakistan 7.5, placing each in the “very high” band, while Sri Lanka (6.3) and Nepal (6.2) fell into the “high” category. What stands out is the concentration: three of the world’s six “very high” countries were in South Asia: India, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Bangladesh’s trajectory is particularly concerning: its score rose from 6.1 in 2022 to 7.8 in 2023, partly reflecting incidents of large-scale religious violence. These figures do not measure interpersonal trust, but combined with changing perceptions of neighbouring countries and the region’s history of conflict, they raise a critical question: Are we investing enough in building trust among South Asia’s people?
For years, investment has poured into physical and economic connectivity. Tens of billions of dollars have gone into projects under initiatives such as the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation programme. Roads and ports matter. Rail links, power networks, border facilities and trade corridors are necessary, and continuing to build them makes sense. Yet the next big regional investment may need to sit less in concrete and more in ‘people’. A highway can shorten travel time between capitals, but it does not guarantee that citizens will understand one another. A power grid moves electricity efficiently, not confidence. Trade corridors shift goods across borders, but they do not automatically dissolve stereotypes stored up over generations.
The region needs far more student exchanges, joint degree programmes, shared cultural projects, research collaboration, professional networks, sports ties and regular interaction among young people. Universities, in particular, should work together on problems that ignore political maps: climate pressures, shared river systems, public health threats, energy security, the blue economy and regional security. There is also a practical economic argument. Intraregional trade is only around 5 per cent of South Asia’s overall trade, while ASEAN sits closer to 25 per cent. The World Bank has itself identified a broader “trust deficit” as one of the obstacles to deeper regional integration.
Political leaders carry the biggest obligation, but trust is not something governments cannot develop alone. Universities, civil society, the media, businesses, cultural organisations and professional bodies must also create spaces where South Asians meet one another beyond the language of geopolitics. Most importantly, regional trust cannot mean accepting the dominance of larger states. Sustainable cooperation must be founded on Equity, Dignity and Sovereignty. Smaller countries must feel that their interests, identities and political independence are respected. Trust cannot be demanded; it must be earned through reciprocity, fairness and predictable behaviour.
That is where regional institutions matter. Reviving SAARC requires an extra push, not as a venue for occasional formalities but as a channel for sustained social, academic, and people-to-people contact. At the same time, BIMSTEC, SASEC, and BBIN can be strengthened and used with more imagination to support that work. Cooperation does not have to hinge on a single body. South Asia has spent decades connecting places. The coming decade must focus on ‘connecting people’. For a region home to one-quarter of humanity, trust is not just a social good; it is fundamental to security, prosperity and sustainable development.
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The writer is an academician and development strategist, currently serving at a foreign diplomatic mission in Dhaka. He can be reached at [email protected]