Is She Coming Back?

Sheikh Hasina took refuge in India two years ago-- after her downfall amid a mass uprising during the July-August movement. Since then, she has been silent for some time, but in a recent interview with Reuters, she said she would return home by December this year. India’s NDTV made a breaking news report about this, citing Reuters. Then, very recently, on 5 August, she virtually joined a press conference in New Delhi and reiterated her determination to return home by December. On 5 August, the government and the opposition parties, represented in Bangladesh’s parliament, were celebrating the second anniversary of the July movement. That is why the arrogance of the former prime minister has given rise to protests among the July-movement students, the public, and the leaders and activists of political parties. Sheikh Hasina sitting on Indian soil to give a political speech was not at all desirable to the Bangladesh government. When the Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka paid a courtesy call on the Prime Minister’s Foreign Affairs Advisor on 3 August, he expressed his hope that Sheikh Hasina would not be allowed to make any political statements about Bangladesh using Indian soil. In response, the spokesperson at the Ministry of External Affairs in Delhi on 4 August clarified that the alleged event was scheduled at the private level. The Indian government had nothing to do with it. Even the subject matter of that event, or the words that could be said there, had no support or connection to the Indian government. The Bangladesh government was not satisfied with Jaswal's response. Immediately after Sheikh Hasina’s speech was broadcast, the government issued a press release criticising India in unusually strong language. The next day, Jaswal again clarified that the event was organised at a private level, and that the Indian government had no business with it. At the same time, the government does not endorse anything said at the event, especially on the duly formed government in Bangladesh.
It is not that Bangladeshi citizens living abroad do not make political statements, do not criticise the government, or are not doing so even at present. Many of them are convicted in Bangladeshi courts. But no government has ever been so strict about someone else’s statement.
Sheikh Hasina has already been sentenced to the maximum penalty in a Bangladesh court. The government has instead asked for Sheikh Hasina’s return from India under an extradition treaty. But among these, the most discussed, at home and abroad, is Sheikh Hasina’s announcement that she will return home by December. In 2007, when Sheikh Hasina attempted to return to Dhaka from the United States via London, British Airways refused her a boarding pass citing an entry ban by the then government.  She challenged it and said that she was not afraid of arrest, lawsuits or prison, but rather wanted to face the law when she returns home. This time too, she had the same tone: she was not afraid of a death sentence or a serial murder case, but wanted to face those animosities politically from Bangladesh.
So, naturally, the question has arisen in political circles: will Sheikh Hasina really return home while she has a death sentence? What will happen if she returns? Is she returning with some prior compromise—legal or political?
If there is a compromise, the opposition parties in parliament will definitely accuse the government of compromising and will launch a movement against it. It is, therefore, certainly risky for the government. The Law Minister has said that when Sheikh Hasina returns home, measures will be taken to arrest her for executing the sentence. But people do not have confidence in the minister’s words. Meanwhile, her supporters are imagining the sky. They say that they will charter twenty planes and land at Dhaka Airport together. The international media will be with them. Lakhs of leaders and activists will gather at the airport. Some say that she will come by road. Lakhs of leaders and activists will then be with her from the border. The government will not be able to snatch her away or arrest her.
Her supporters can imagine the wild, but political analysts are not so emotional. They think that there will definitely be among international circles. Maybe India or the United States will somehow make the Bangladesh government agree.
Is that really true? Is there any room for discussion on these issues while there are huge tensions between Bangladesh and India? Will the United States, which blessed the protesters in July-August and spent US$29 million, as Donald Trump put it, now lobby for Sheikh Hasina’s return?
International politics is very complex. During the Awami League regime, the government was economically dependent on China. It supported Sheikh Hasina by financing the construction of the Padma Bridge. However, due to India’s active role, Sheikh Hasina was able to maintain a safe distance from China in the equation of international politics. Due to India’s hostility, the current government may be leaning towards China despite its reluctance. It is participating in China’s global initiatives. It has agreed to cooperate with China on the Taiwan issue. It has even requested China to mediate the repatriation of Myanmar refugees. Therefore, it would not be strange if the United States starts to get irritated over these.
Again, India is not able to relax while maintaining hostility with Bangladesh for such a long time. Since Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India is the biggest reason for the tension between the two countries, if Sheikh Hasina leaves India, India will be spared from discomfort. It can then normalise relations with Bangladesh. Since Sheikh Hasina cannot take refuge in any other country at the moment, Bangladesh is the only destination. Now India’s first task is to ensure Sheikh Hasina’s security inside Bangladesh.
India’s National Intelligence Chief visited Bangladesh for two days on 10-11August. Earlier, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy for South and Central Asia visited Dhaka. These visits have been called routine visits by the Bangladesh government. Is it possible that the issue of Sheikh Hasina’s return is now an immediate routine for these people?
_____________________________________
The writer is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador