What Future Awaits Modi?

What is currently happening in India’s capital, New Delhi, is similar to what had happened in Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, in 2024. The timing is also similar, which gives the impression that all of the big political changeovers in South Asia happen during the monsoon. Since 20 July, New Delhi has seen a slew of protests, initiated first by Sonam Wangchuk and later by the leader of the newly formed Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) Abhijeet Dipke. Both leaders want the resignation of India’s Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan over exam irregularities and question paper leaks, which has catapulted into a demand for the resignation of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But will Modi bow down? Facts and figures do not say much.

Modi has been in power since 2014, securing a third consecutive term in the latest national election in 2024 and electoral victories in the West Bengal assembly election in April. Although inflation and unemployment are running high in India for some time now, media reports indicate that people are generally happy with Modi. Behind their happiness are reasons like India’s global standing, growth of Hindutva politics and crackdown on Muslims, all of which have helped Modi receive solid support from the majority.

It is true that the cost of living for Indians has gone up and prices of essentials are hitting the roof, while the country’s youth are struggling to secure jobs. Still, most Indians think Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has a clean image devoid of any scandals which had mired past governments like that of the Congress.

So, if most Indians are happy with Modi, why are people like Wangchuk and Dipke marching towards the parliament with their supporters, and why are opposition leaders like Rahul Gandhi being picked up by police with a bloody nose from outside Modi’s residence? This is the contradiction with democracy, where even if the majority supports a leader, there remain countless others who form the minority and have differing views.

In democracy, if 51% of people support someone, that person claims victory while the other 49%, who are numbered in millions, are left unrepresented. That does not mean that the majority is always right and the minority is wrong. It is just a numbers game.

There are many in India who are frustrated because the country’s millions of youth are not finding jobs after coming out of universities. There are thousands of others who do not want persecution of the country’s Muslim population. There are numerous people in India who want prices of essentials to go down so that people living with limited means can go home with what they need to survive. People like Wangchuk and Dipke are dissatisfied with the way in which Modi has been ruling for three consecutive terms, establishing absolute control over Indian politics. They want to diminish Modi’s power so that others can have an equal opportunity to represent their causes.

People’s assembly outside the parliament or the PM’s house does not necessarily mean that a government will fall. But this gives a hint about the underlying discontent among a section of the Indian populace about how their country is being governed. When Bangladeshi students came out on the streets during the monsoon of 2024, demanding reform of quotas in government jobs, they did not plan to overthrow Sheikh Hasina from power. If Hasina had reacted more reasonably to the students, it would have been a different story. She shot herself in the foot by launching a crackdown on the students and initiating a killing spree, resulting in the deaths of more than a thousand students and injuries to countless others.

When the students were being killed, people from all strata realised that they were unsafe under Hasina’s rule, and so they took to the street with the intention to bring her down, which ultimately propelled Hasina to flee to India, where the current protests are taking place.

Although individuals like Wangchuk and Dipke are calling for Modi’s ouster and their supporters are thronging the parliament and the PM’s residence in thousands, this alone may not be able to bring Modi down, as he is a leader who has a strong support base among the right-wing sections of Indian society, who number in millions. However, if Modi makes the same mistake that Hasina made and tries to muzzle the voices of his adversaries through violent crackdown and state-sponsored repression, grabbing onto power will become difficult for him.

No government can satisfy everyone under its jurisdiction; there will be dissent against its decisions and mistakes. This is what makes democracy an effective ideology, where people can enjoy their right to freedom of speech. If governments begin viewing this right as a challenge to their rule and try to choke critics’ voices, a democracy turns into an autocracy where the head of the government has the final say on everything.
The time has come for Modi to learn from Hasina’s failure in Bangladesh and treat his opponents with less violence and more consideration.
_____________________________________
The writer is a Sub-Editor at the Daily Sun. He can be reached at [email protected]