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The United States changes governments in countries. These are done secretly. There are huge efforts in the process. It was once common in Latin America, and Africa too. After the Arab Spring in Tunisia or the Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine, the game of changing governments in the Middle East or Asia is now visible. It is rumoured that the United States has secretly orchestrated the assassination or exile of several governments and heads of state in Bangladesh, military coups, or mass uprisings. In these cases, the United States also selects who will sit in the new government after the change of power. This is like Frederick Forsyth’s novel Dogs of War.
At the very beginning of the recent attack on Iran by the United States and Israel, Israel killed Iran’s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, through a drone attack on 28 February this year. US President Donald Trump had then proudly called on the Iranian people to change their government. In late December last year, when businessmen began protesting against rising commodity prices and a weak economy in Iran, students also joined the movement, and it quickly turned into an anti-government movement. The movement was spontaneous. No one person or organisation was seen to be in the lead. Thousands of protesters lost their lives at the hands of the government forces. In the first week of January, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Iranian Shah, who was abroad, expressed solidarity with the movement. The question then arose: if the Islamic regime falls, will Iran return to a monarchy? If a republican government is formed, will Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remain in power? Many have noted that Pezeshkian has consistently supported reform and expressed sympathy for the protesters.
By mid-January, the Islamic Republican Guard Corps put down the protests by force. At the end of February, the United States and Israel jointly attacked Iran. Iran and the United States were then negotiating the nuclear programme under the mediation of Oman. Oman’s foreign minister said that progress was being made in the talks. But Donald Trump, impatient with the lack of progress in the talks, attacked Iran. Iran also retaliated. The Iranian attacks targeted at least 19 US military installations located in Israel and Arab countries. Although the American missile attacks caused significant damage to Iranian infrastructure, the Americans failed to gain any advantage from the war when Iran adopted the strategy of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian resistance made the American war pointless. The Americans could neither eliminate Iran’s nuclear ambition and missile capabilities nor make any headway for regime change in Iran.
The United States and Iran are currently in talks to permanently end the war. It is unlikely that much progress will be made in the talks. In any case, does anyone believe that the United States and Israel will keep their hands-off Iran? Or will they want to attack again at any cost? The United States has achieved nothing: control of nuclear capabilities, destruction of missile installations, and change of the Islamic regime.
This is when the New York Times dropped a bombshell. We learned that not Reza Pahlavi, not Masoud Pezeshkian, but the former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was in the US-Israeli plan. Ahmadinejad served two terms as president of Iran from 2005 to 2013. He still wanted to run for president three more times. The Guardian Council, led by Ali Khamenei, declared his candidacy invalid all three times. Ahmadinejad may therefore have a power struggle with the ruling government. But will he join hands with Israel to assume power?
Ahmadinejad lives a very simple life. He never appeared to be greedy. He is not known to possess any appetite for luxury. He is a staunch supporter of the Islamic Revolution. He was active in favour of rapidly increasing Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He was so anti-Israel that he considered the Holocaust during World War II to be a lie. Would that Ahmadinejad betray the Islamic Revolution and collude with the Israelis just for the sake of power?
The source of the news published by the New York Times is the Israeli intelligence. If Ahmadinejad is trusted by the Americans or the Israelis, then if the anti-government movement of December-January is not successful or if Iran is not left without a leader by assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the end of February, or if the government is not changed, will the Israelis publicly humiliate someone they trust like this? It is hard to believe this. Ahmadinejad may have contacts with the Israelis. An activist of his stature may have multiple contacts, even from the enemy camp. However, it does not seem like he will fall into the hands of the Israelis due to his greed for power. Why did the New York Times publish such news? And that too, now? Maybe, America and Israel, unable to gain an advantage in the war, are now trying to create a rift within the Iranian leadership. Like all is fair in love and war, creating internal chaos in Iran may be such a strategy for the Americans and the Israelis. Who knows what is on their minds? Who knows what their next step is? I hope the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will be vigilant, prudent and judicious, and will not fall into the trap of the Americans and Israelis.
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The writer is former Bangladeshi Ambassador