Prime Minister’s Twin Visits

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman is now in China. He visited Malaysia just before this. These are his first foreign visits after taking the oath as prime minister just four months ago. Social media and electronic media now make all government activities a topic of discussion. As a result, many were quite vocal in discussing where the new prime minister should make his first foreign visit. In addition to China and India, the list includes Saudi Arabia, Japan, Pakistan and even Bhutan.
Since the July uprising in Bangladesh, when the interim government was in power for eighteen consecutive months, there has been a strain in bilateral relations with India. During that time, India has indicated several times that it wants to engage with an elected government in Bangladesh. India demonstrated its engagement when the former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia passed away. The Indian Foreign Minister flew to Dhaka to attend her funeral. A proper condolence motion was passed in the Indian Lok Sabha. India’s important presence at the swearing-in ceremony of the new government was also noteworthy. India opened its airports for the transshipment of Bangladesh’s exports. It also provided Bangladesh with fuel assistance during the recent energy crisis. But the situation took a different turn after the Vidhan Sabha elections in West Bengal. The hard-right Hindutva BJP government came to power in West Bengal. The new chief minister decided to build a barbed wire fence along the border. Indian Border Security Force (BSF) was involved in a series of border killings. Then, inhuman and unlawful attempts like push-ins began. As a result, instead of rebuilding Bangladesh-India relations, new tensions began.
The foreign minister of Bangladesh was elected President of the United Nations General Assembly in June. Until then, he was probably mostly occupied with his election campaign. That is why Foreign Ministry of Bangladesh was also going through a kind of stagnation. Since winning the election, the work of the ministry seems to have picked up pace. The PM’s back-to-back visits to Malaysia and China are an example of this.
The enthusiasts see the Malaysian visit as a cushion. They smelled geopolitical elements in it because the PM visited China in the first leg without visiting India or any other country in South Asia. They indicate that the new government has moved out of India’s sphere of influence and is leaning towards China.
Not all aspects of foreign policy ever come into the public domain. The path of dialogue has to be kept open even with the worst enemy. If there is no opportunity for dialogue at the top level, then it has to be discussed even behind the scenes. Although there is tension in Bangladesh-India relations, there is no hostility. Even if there is some degree of hostility, there is no war-like situation. Therefore, it can be assumed that communication and dialogue are continuing between the two countries to normalise relations. India has already appointed a new ambassador. It is expected that the new ambassador will present his credentials in a few days. It is expected that India will organise consultations at the level of foreign secretaries of the two countries. The DGs of Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and BSF will meet again. The Joint River Commission may hold a meeting. The prime minister may also visit India within this year or soon. He may visit other countries in South Asia. As a result, those who think that Bangladesh is leaning towards one side may then be reassured by Bangladesh’s balanced foreign policy.
The prime minister has chosen two countries for his first phase of visit, where the head of the interim government visited ten and eight months ago, respectively. Frequent high-level visits to the same country are an indication of warmth between the two. Although for a country like Bangladesh, consecutive visits are a luxury in many ways. However, I have seen a reflection of the new government’s economic urgency in the China visit.
The budget session of National Parliament of Bangladesh is still going on. This time, the government has proposed an ambitious budget of Tk938,000 crore. One-third of this is the development budget. The biggest challenge of it is its financing. That is why it is very natural for the PM to visit one of the leading project-supporting countries like China. This visit was also necessary for China. That is why China did not hesitate to welcome three different heads of government of Bangladesh in three years. The question is, what is China’s necessity?
Bangladesh joined Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2016. That year, during the visit of the Chinese premier, the country announced US$20 billion worth of project assistance to Bangladesh. Even though ten years have passed, half of the promised amount has reached Bangladesh. China is interested in making quick decisions on the project proposals that are in the pipeline. This time, it is heard that Bangladesh will seek US$6 billion in project assistance. Apart from BRI, China has at least four other global initiatives: Global Governance Initiative, Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative. The Governance Initiative emphasises the democratisation of the multilateral world system, and the GDI focuses on financing the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals.
The Security Initiative works to ensure the security of each country, and the Civilization Initiative works to protect the unique culture and ideals of different countries. Although China has invited Bangladesh to be a part of these global initiatives many times, Bangladesh has not been directly involved in them so far. There are indications that this time, Bangladesh may express interest in joining the GDI. Those who have smelled geopolitics during China’s visit will be able to point their fingers now if Bangladesh joins the GDI. Bangladesh may soon be able to upgrade from a least developed country to a developing country. In such a situation, development will become one of the main focuses of Bangladesh. Although the GDI bears a signature of development, it will remain a challenge for Bangladesh.
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The writer is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador