El Niño: Alarm Bell Ringing for Bangladesh

Bangladesh does not need to see the Pacific Ocean to feel it. A farmer may never read an El Niño forecast, yet he knows when rain comes late, and irrigation costs rise. A rickshaw-puller may not know the science of ocean warming, yet he knows when the road burns under his wheels. A mother in the coastal belt may not follow climate models, yet she knows when drinking water tastes saltier than before. This is not another weather story. The World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño conditions are very likely to emerge during June to August 2026, with a probability of 80 per cent. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives an 82 per cent chance for May to July 2026 and a 96 per cent chance that El Niño will continue through December 2026 to February 2027. Forecasts may change, but these figures are serious enough for Bangladesh to act early. El Niño begins through warmer-than-usual sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. In Bangladesh, it quickly enters crop calendars, food prices, clinics, schools, labour hours, water collection, and household debt.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department’s June 2026 outlook, reported by BSS, gives that global warning a local shape. Bangladesh is likely to receive slightly below-normal rainfall and above-normal day and night temperatures in June. The forecast mentions two to three mild to moderate heatwaves in different parts of the country. BMD classifies mild heatwaves at 36°C to 37.9°C and moderate heatwaves at 38°C to 39.9°C. The same outlook expects five to seven days of light to moderate thunderstorms, one to two low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, and a chance that one may intensify into a monsoon depression. Rivers may remain normal, but heavy rainfall can still raise water levels temporarily in some areas. This matters because Bangladesh’s climate risks rarely arrive in neat, separate boxes such as flood, drought, heatwave, or cyclone. A month may bring below-normal rainfall overall, yet still produce sudden rainbursts, local waterlogging, or temporary river rises.

Environmental humanities help us read this more honestly. The environment is never outside society. A canal is not just water. A pond is not unused land. A tree is not decoration. A field is not only production. These things hold livelihood, cooling, protection, and survival. Agriculture will feel El Niño early because a seed does not care about annual rainfall totals. It needs moisture at the right moment. Planting, transplanting, flowering, and harvesting all depend on timing. A short delay can raise irrigation costs. A longer dry spell can damage seedlings. Heat can weaken livestock. One poor harvest can push a family into loans, asset sales, migration, or unpaid school fees. The northwest already knows dry-season anxiety, while coastal districts know salinity as a slow wound. When freshwater flow weakens and evaporation rises, salt presses harder against ponds, canals, fields, and household water sources. Waiting for crop failure is bad governance. Agricultural extension officers should turn seasonal forecasts into local guidance on seed choice, planting dates, irrigation, soil moisture, and livestock protection. Drought-tolerant and heat-tolerant varieties, emergency irrigation support, crop insurance, and anticipatory cash assistance should reach farmers before distress becomes visible.
Heat needs the same urgency because Bangladesh still treats it as discomfort. For a wealthy family, heat may mean air-conditioning, bottled water, a generator, and private healthcare. For a day labourer, heat means dizziness, weakness, lost wages, and sometimes no choice except to keep working. The World Bank’s full report on heat and health in Bangladesh puts numbers behind what people already feel: from 1980 to 2023, Bangladesh’s maximum temperature rose by 1.1°C, while the “feels like” temperature increased by 4.5°C; Bangladesh ranks second globally in exposure to elevated temperatures; Dhaka’s heat index has increased about 65 percent more than the national average; and in 2024, heat-related physical and mental health conditions caused an estimated loss of 25 million workdays and cost the economy between US$1.33 billion and US$1.78 billion, about 0.3 to 0.4 per cent of GDP. These figures mean rent delayed, meals reduced, medicine bought late, tuition postponed, dizziness on a roadside, and farmers leaving the field before finishing the day’s work. Schools need clear heat rules. Employers of outdoor and informal workers should provide rest breaks, shade, and water. Community clinics need supplies and training for dehydration, heatstroke, respiratory distress, diarrhoeal disease, fatigue, and mental strain.

Water remains Bangladesh’s old contradiction. The country is known for rivers, floods and monsoons, yet many people live with water shortages, salinity, contamination, or drainage failure. El Niño can sharpen all of this. A village may wait for rain while a city road disappears under water after one hard burst. A coastal family may stand surrounded by water and still struggle for water safe enough to drink. Cities need to stop treating trees, ponds, wetlands, and open spaces as luxuries. Shade is protection. Water bodies are protection. Open space is protection. The human rights argument is unavoidable here. OHCHR states that climate change threatens rights to life, water and sanitation, food, health, housing, culture, development, and self-determination. If a warning exists and authorities fail to act, the problem is neglect. Preparedness should mean planting advice before crop loss, cash before distress sales, drinking water before salinity peaks, shade before heatstroke, drainage before waterlogging, clinic readiness before emergency queues, and school rules before children fall ill. Bangladesh has union parishads, agricultural officers, community clinics, mosques, schools, women’s groups, volunteers, radio, and mobile phones. The country does not lack channels. It lacks urgency and coordination. Resilience without protection is abandonment with nicer language. Bangladesh cannot command the ocean. It can command its response. The question is whether we will act before suffering becomes visible.
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The writer is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Philosophy at IUBAT and is currently on study leave, residing in Oslo, Norway