Nearly Tk1 lakh crore revenue shortfall in 9 months

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) recorded a shortfall of nearly Tk1 lakh crore in the first nine months (July-March) of the fiscal 2025-26, the highest deficit in Bangladesh’s history.

According to the latest NBR data released on Tuesday, the revenue gap stood at Tk97,990 crore, already matching last fiscal year’s record shortfall of Tk98,000 crore, with three months still remaining.

Total revenue collection during the period reached around Tk2.88 lakh crore against a target of nearly Tk3.86 lakh crore. 

Despite overall growth of around 11%, none of the three major revenue streams – import duty, VAT, and income tax – met their targets.

Income tax recorded the largest gap, exceeding Tk40,000 crore, followed by VAT with a shortfall of Tk34,400 crore. Import duties lagged by Tk22,973 crore.

To meet the annual target of Tk5.03 lakh crore, the NBR will need to collect an average of about Tk73,000 crore per month in the remaining quarter, an increasingly difficult task under current conditions.

The shortfall comes as Bangladesh operates under an IMF-supported reform programme, which requires annual revenue increases of more than 0.5% of GDP. 

Domestic revenue remains a key source of financing for government expenditure outside the development budget.

Former NBR chairman and head of the revenue reform committee under the interim government, Dr Muhammad Abdul Mazid, said achieving such an ambitious target would be difficult without structural changes. 

He stressed the need for comprehensive reform, noting that no government has fully implemented such measures so far.

“Currently, the NBR both formulates policy and collects taxes, which weakens accountability and creates scope for arbitrary use of power,” he said. “At the same time, the financial condition of taxpayers must be considered. It is not entirely fair to expect strong revenue collection while the banking sector remains weak. Nor is it correct to place sole responsibility on the NBR.”

NBR officials attributed the shortfall to sluggish business activity, adding that efforts are underway to expand the tax base, strengthen compliance, curb evasion, and recover outstanding dues.

The widening revenue gap now poses a major challenge for fiscal management as the government enters the final quarter of the fiscal year under mounting pressure to boost collections.