Ground Reality amidst Geo Political Tension: Information and Misinformation

From time to time, we receive notifications advising us to stay indoors or take shelter, followed by messages thanking us for our cooperation. This has become a recurring experience for many citizens, residents and visitors. It feels surreal to imagine such alerts in cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi; yet, increasingly, this seems to be becoming more common than we would like to admit.

Across the world, similar notifications, alerts and drills have become part of daily life. I would not delve into the “more”, because we see enough of it on the news. The message is always the same: “These are uncertain times.”

Like many others, I watched some reels, interviews and official statements circulating on social media. They tend to fall into two categories: misinformation that fuels panic and information that urges calm. This raises an important question: are we being responsible in what we choose to share?

As a professional who understands climate impacts, lived through the pandemic, and has recently experienced geopolitical tensions in the places I reside and visit, I recognise the familiar drill: avoid misinformation, stay aware and follow protocols.

In our everyday lives, we do what we can: we try to keep calm and carry on. Yet the word ‘resilience’ quietly echoes in the background. On the one hand, there is human resilience: the ability to withstand and recover from difficulty. On the other, there is the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)’s definition, which is “The ability of a system, community, or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner… through risk management.”

So, the question is where does one form of resilience end and the other begin? And how equipped are different states and nations to manage risk? To explore this, it helps to understand how systemic resilience enables human and community resilience and how people, in turn, reinforce the systems that protect them. The second more pressing question is why are some nations, states and communities better equipped than others? Broadly, it comes down to three interconnected layers – preparedness, governance and risk management – or simply, the capacity to respond effectively when a crisis unfolds.

Preparedness, in its simplest linguistic sense, means “a state of readiness, especially for war”. Technically, in the context of disasters (as per UNDRR), it is defined as “the knowledge and capacities developed by governments, response and recovery organisations, communities and individuals to anticipate, respond to and recover from likely or current disasters.”

So how does preparedness translate into everyday governance and risk management? Residents in the UAE describe it succinctly: “Missiles are literally intercepted over our heads. Yet the country responds with calm and planning and clear communication. No frills, no drama, just the system working quietly.”

Clear communication builds trust. People from diverse backgrounds like officegoers, business owners, baristas and cab drivers echo the same sentiment: a felt sense of safety, even in uncertain times. This confidence stems from governance systems that function smoothly, guided by long term vision and disciplined leadership.

Over time, this consistency shapes behaviour. People follow rules, reinforce norms and internalise discipline. In turn, this behavioural stability strengthens governance systems, creating a feedback loop where risk management becomes embedded in everyday processes.

But this is only one half of the equation. The other half is infrastructure and economic capacity. Countries with greater economic strength can invest in resilient infrastructure such as robust power grids, safe buildings, advanced monitoring systems, redundancy mechanisms and social protection measures like insurance and compensation. Economic capacity reduces vulnerability, even if it cannot eliminate risk.

To put this disparity in perspective, World Bank data (2024) shows that GDP per capita in the USA is 65 times higher than in least developed countries (LDCs), and the EU’s is 33 times higher. It is a stark reminder that many of the world’s most vulnerable nations also have the least economic buffer.

Yet even the strongest infrastructure relies on governance and communication to function effectively. In moments of crisis, systems that are transparent, coordinated and trusted prevent panic and maintain societal calm.

Ultimately, resilience is not accidental; it emerges when informed governance, disciplined communities, reliable information systems and economic capacity reinforce one another. In times of uncertainties and geopolitical tension, the ability to distinguish information from misinformation becomes central to public trust and calm. Nations that align human behaviour, systemic preparedness and clear communication are better equipped to withstand uncertainty, while gaps in any of these dimensions deepen vulnerability.

The writer is an expert on climate change and sustainability issues with 17+ years of experience across India, South Asia and Africa. She can be reached at [email protected]