Air power may soon enter the conflict

We already have two wars on our hands. One has been going on in Ukraine for the last four years, and the other has erupted in and between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past week or so. But if that were not enough for the world, we now have a much bigger war at hand, with Israel and the USA on one side and Iran on the other.
As a result, the world’s attention has immediately shifted to the Middle East. However, before turning to that, let me briefly address the ongoing conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Although it remains a very limited conflict confined to the border region, it is within our neighbourhood. Both countries are members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), though Afghanistan is currently an absentee member.
Nevertheless, this conflict is likely to cause significant trouble, as it appears that both sides are now edging towards a full-scale war. The irony is that the Pakistani government is now fighting the Taliban, who were trained, educated, and nurtured in Afghanistan, and whose initial seizure of power in Kabul was strongly supported by Pakistan.
They were later removed from power, but over the past 30 years or so, Pakistan has been deeply involved in Afghan politics. Now, the Taliban have turned their guns on their former Pakistani mentors.
The roots of this conflict go back to 1947, when Pakistan was created. Since then, no Afghan government – whether under King Mohammad Zahir Shah, the Mujahideen, the interim democratic government, or the Taliban – has recognised the Durand Line. Consequently, when the Pakistani government attempted to erect border fencing, which restricted the free movement of tribal populations, the Afghan government strongly objected.
Since then, tensions have continued to rise, particularly after the recent bombing of a Shia mosque in Islamabad, which Pakistan has blamed on Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan accuses the Afghan government of sheltering and arming the group.
It is ironic that only a few months ago, the Indian Air Force bombed mosques and seminaries in Pakistan, alleging that they were harbouring terrorists attacking India. Now, Pakistan is targeting seminaries and mosques in Afghanistan, claiming they are training Taliban fighters to carry out terrorism inside Pakistan. The situation is complex, and its resolution remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, tensions have escalated sharply between Israel and the United States on one side, and Iran on the other. The US and Israel aim to change the Iranian government, which openly opposes Israel’s existence and refuses to recognise the state.
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated on television this morning (Saturday) that Israel is fighting an existential battle for its very survival. In effect, American and Israeli forces have attacked several key regime targets in Tehran and other Iranian cities. Iran, in turn, is retaliating.
The Americans and Israelis are likely to prioritise neutralising Iranian missile sites, as seen previously. Although many of these missiles are stored underground, they must surface in order to be launched. Launchers and launch sites will therefore be closely monitored and targeted to prevent missile launches. Efforts will also be made to identify and destroy command structures, including both military and political leadership.
Missiles have already been exchanged, but most Iranian attacks have been intercepted by US, Israeli, and Gulf state defence systems. The key question remains: who will exhaust their arsenal first – Iran, or Israel and the United States?
Air power may enter the conflict as early as today, with US aircraft carriers and possibly the Israeli Air Force striking missile sites and command centres. However, removing the Iranian regime will not be easy. Even if senior leaders are killed, the regime’s layered governing structures are likely to maintain control. US calls for popular uprisings may also prove ineffective, as previous attempts have been met with severe repression.
The mullah regime is deeply unpopular, particularly among young and educated Iranians. A prolonged conflict could spark domestic unrest, but regime collapse could also lead to chaos, as witnessed in Iraq, Libya, and Syria, potentially creating space for extremist groups to emerge.
This situation is extremely dangerous on a global scale. For Bangladesh, the consequences could include rising oil prices and disruptions to fuel and natural gas supplies, similar to the economic impact experienced during the Ukraine war. Continuous monitoring is essential, alongside hope for a negotiated peace.
As for the wider international response, China and Russia are unlikely to intervene militarily due to domestic challenges and, in Russia’s case, its ongoing involvement in Ukraine. They may offer diplomatic backing or provide refuge to key figures but are likely to remain largely on the sidelines.
Arab states are also mostly observing events. They lack either the capacity or the political will to intervene directly, although many would prefer Iran’s regional influence to be contained, which would benefit rivals such as Saudi Arabia.
Ultimately, this conflict is likely to remain a direct confrontation between Israel, the United States, and Iran, with other powers largely monitoring developments.

The writer is a Security Analyst