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Bangladesh may face significant load shedding in the coming weeks as Ramadan overlaps with the irrigation and peak summer seasons, traditionally the highest electricity demand period of the year.
Sector insiders say that unless fuel supplies are secured in line with rising demand, the shortfall could range between 1,500MW and 2,000MW.
According to projections by the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), demand is expected to rise from 13,500MW in February to 16,500MW in March, and further to around 18,500MW in April and May.
The Meteorological Department has forecast above-average temperatures this year, which could push consumption even higher.
Capacity vs actual generation
BPDB data show that Bangladesh’s total grid-based generation capacity stands at around 29,000MW. This includes 12,204MW from gas-fired plants, 7,203MW from coal, 5,634MW from furnace oil, 768MW from diesel, 1,059MW from renewable sources and 2,696MW from imported electricity.
However, actual generation remains well below installed capacity, particularly for gas shortages. Domestic gas output has been declining steadily, while production by international operators, including Chevron, has also fallen.
Options to increase imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) are limited, as the country’s two LNG terminals have a combined regasification capacity of about 1,100 million cubic feet per day, restricting additional supply to power plants.
Mounting financial strain
Financial pressures are compounding the crisis. Industry insiders say outstanding payments to private power producers have reached approximately Tk30,000 crore. Several producers have reportedly struggled to open letters of credit to import fuel due to delayed payments, raising concerns about potential disruptions in generation.
Bangladesh Independent Power Producers Association President David Hasanat warned that failure to clear arrears could undermine electricity production and erode investor confidence. Private producers account for about 9,000MW of capacity, backed by investments of roughly US$10 billion.
BPDB Member (Generation) Md Zahurul Islam said preparations were underway to manage peak demand during Ramadan and summer.
He described independent power producers as vital to the supply plan and expressed confidence that the government would arrange necessary funding.
Discussions with Petrobangla are ongoing to secure additional gas supplies, he added.
Energy expert Prof M Tamim said that declining gas production could further aggravate the crisis and directly affect electricity generation. He urged prompt settlement of dues to private power producers unless irregularities were found, cautioning that prolonged arrears could force some plants to scale down or halt operations.
He also said that stable fuel supplies, timely payments and expansion of gas infrastructure would be critical to maintaining electricity stability during the high-demand Ramadan and summer period.
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