The Planet Does Not Argue: Sink or Swim

On 5 June 2026, the Republic of Azerbaijan will host the global commemoration of World Environment Day (WED) in Baku. This year's theme of the day is ‘Climate Action’. Located at the crossroads of East and West, Azerbaijan is a land of remarkable natural diversity. The country is situated at the crossroads of two major climatic zones – subtropical and temperate. In terms of climate action, Azerbaijan is pursuing green growth and renewable energy gradually. As host of COP29, Azerbaijan advanced the global climate agenda, securing decisions on climate finance and carbon markets, while launching initiatives linking climate action with biodiversity, energy transition, water, agriculture, and societal impact.
Azerbaijan has committed to reducing emissions by 40 per cent from 1990 levels by 2035. It also aims to increase renewable energy to 30 per cent by 2030. Large-scale projects such as the 230 MW solar plant and 240 MW wind farm are underway. The Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Azerbaijan mentioned that urban sustainability is advancing in Baku with zero-emission buses, EV infrastructure, and smart city solutions. The different regions of the country are being transformed into “zero-emissions” zones, blending renewable energy, ecosystem restoration, and post-conflict development. Also, modernised water management and climate-resilient agriculture further strengthen adaptation in drought-prone areas.

For acting on the WED theme ‘Climate Action’, an action plan is a must. For example, Azerbaijan advanced its environmental policy, focusing on reducing the negative impact of plastic packaging waste on the environment since 2019 by adopting an action plan. Through new legislative reforms it prohibited the import and production, as well as sale or provision to consumers in trade, public catering, and other service facilities, of single-use plastics and polyethylene bags with a thickness of up to 15 microns. Azerbaijan has realised the planetary crisis of climate change and ecosystem degradation and their interconnected impacts on people and nature. It has also been realised that nature is not optional—it is central to climate resilience and our collective future.
An action plan needs to take into account the future climate change scenario. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (2021) mentioned that scientists have created five different visions for the future using different assumptions around issues such as population growth, technology, inequality, urbanisation and economic growth, which is known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). SSPs look at a range of futures where changes to society affect how easy it is to mitigate and adapt and show how different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) could be reached. It is to be noted here that RCP is to map out different greenhouse gas concentrations and the warming associated with them. In this scenario radiative forcing has been considered, which is a measure of the difference between the energy that enters the atmosphere and the energy that leaves it that leads to heating. On the other hand, SSP takes into account how the society changes through various socio-economic factors. 
The carbon dioxide removal-related factsheet produced by the IPCC (2022) suggests that the projections of global temperature take into account the use of technologies, practices and approaches to take significant amounts of carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere and store it away, which could mean the temperature overshoots the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius but comes back down again. This strategy of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is a part of almost all scenarios that limit global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius and is used either to offset sectors that are particularly hard to decarbonise or to bring temperatures back down if they overshoot.
While we consider various climate action on the basis of the ‘known’ impacts of climate change, we also need to bear in mind the ‘known unknown’ impact of climate change. Among these are the potential tipping points where a system shifts from one state to another, causing a potential cascade of effects. Such tipping points include huge changes in monsoons, the loss of coral reefs, the shifting of one ecosystem to another, such as forest to grassland, and the melting of permafrost in the Arctic. It has been noted that if permafrost abruptly melts, the gases released could increase global warming by 0.2-0.4 degrees Celsius, making the other tipping points more likely, such as increasing the speed at which ice sheets melt in the ocean, thereby diluting the salinity of the sea and causing a slowdown of major ocean currents.
Another ‘known unknown’ event is how fast the ice sheets could melt and at what point this melting results in feedback loops that make further loss inevitable. Two-thirds of all fresh water on the planet is stored in Greenland and Antarctica's ice sheets. If they melt, seas will rise significantly, and this would fundamentally redesign the coastlines of the planet as we know it today. A recent New Scientist report (dated 16 May 2026) suggests that average sea-level rise per year before 2012 was 2.9 mm, but average sea-level rise per year since 2012 is 4.1 mm. Research carried out by the National Research Council in Italy estimates deep-ocean warming is now adding 0.4 mm to sea level every year, which would mean it is responsible for around 10 per cent of sea-level rise. This is another ‘known unknown’ factor.
In short, whether we sink because of the sea level rise or swim by adapting ourselves to the change of climate, the planet will not argue. It only sends signals such as heatwaves, melting glaciers, rising seas, high temperatures and wildfires. In reply to the signal, humanity also needs to send back signals of various climate actions, such as solar panels across the rooftops, wind turbines along the horizon, redesigning the cities and replanting forests. Danger for humanity is in the offing. In order to tackle that, we need to make not just one day but the next 364 days our world environment days, draw up an action plan and act.
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The writer is a UK-based academic who writes on science, philosophy and education