Global Warming and a Faustian Bargain

When we say 'global warming’, we mean that it is the long-term heating of the earth’s surface observed since the pre-industrial period. Scientists have identified some causes of global warming, which is the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil, gas and coal. When burnt, these fuels release carbon dioxide into the air, which traps greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere, causing it to heat up. But the question is, whom to blame for climate change – human-made or natural fluctuations? Also, how to tackle them?
Recently published UK Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets suggest that the earth was warming at a steady rate of about 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade until the 2010s, when observed temperatures seemed to begin rising slightly faster. Then 2023 became the hottest year on record. Also, 2024 was even hotter than 2023, exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time. One estimate suggests that the earth’s rate of warming per decade since 2014 has become double, which is 0.36 degrees Celsius in comparison to the 2010 level.
One of the pollutants that come to the discussion is aerosol pollution from fossil fuel burning. An aerosol is a suspension of tiny solid particles or liquid droplets within a gas, typically air. There are primary aerosols, which are emitted directly into the atmosphere, such as sea spray, dust, and soot, and secondary aerosols, which are formed in the atmosphere through chemical reactions of gases, such as sulphate aerosols. Aerosols from fossil fuel burning generate sulphur dioxide, which reflects sunlight back into space, and they also help form reflective clouds. Some scientists agree that reductions in our aerosol emissions have accelerated global warming because sunlight, instead of reflecting in the atmosphere, is directly coming to the earth's surface.

Environmental health professionals know that aerosol pollution can kill millions of people each year, and this is one of the reasons China, the world’s biggest emitter of fossil fuel, tried reducing aerosol pollution drastically during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. As a result of this, sulphur aerosol emissions were reduced by at least 75 per cent. Also, the International Maritime Organisation has been cracking down on sulphur emissions from ships for the last several years. Scientists from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service suggest that because of the reduction of global sulphur dioxide emissions, ‘the atmosphere is cleaner, so more solar radiation is coming in’. This seems to suggest that we need some sort of Faustian bargain, a ‘deal with the devil', and use fossil fuel burning in order to get more sulphur aerosol in the atmosphere and reduce global warming in that way. In fact, it is a kind of self-defeating act because we want to reduce fossil fuel use and look for alternative energy sources, but we can see that an increase in the use of fossil fuel can generate aerosols, which can reflect sunlight and reduce solar radiation reaching the earth's surface.
A major complexity to global warming is natural fluctuation that is affecting the earth’s temperature. The eleven-year solar cycle was started in 2020, which means that sunspots and magnetic activity started boosting the amount of sunlight reaching earth. Also, the eruption of a massive underwater volcano near Tonga is spreading a huge amount of water vapour into the stratosphere. At the same time, the volcano also ejected sulphur aerosol into the atmosphere. Some other natural climate pattern emerges from strong El Niño and La Niña events in 2023 and 2024, where an El Niño event is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years, and a La Niña event is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, usually lasting 1 to 3 years.
It is to be noted here that our earth that experiences El Niño and La Niña events is in consistent with the climate model that predicts global warming. Scientists believe that unexpected climate feedback loops have been contributing to the recent temperature rise. Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania suggests that the recent acceleration of warming is greatly influenced by El Niño events, which is entirely consistent with standard climate model simulations. Some German scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute mentioned, “The more you warm up, the more you would be able to dissolve your low-level clouds. It’s really most likely that there is low-cloud feedback taking place.”
The world is on a track for 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming this century under current policy. Because of wars around the world, fossil fuel emissions are accelerating. A report published by earth.org suggests that in the first two weeks of the Iran-Israel-US war, 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide were released in the air. A report published by the Guardian (21 March 2026) suggests that greenhouse gas emissions from fuel consumption by combat aircraft, naval vessels, and fires are much higher than expected. Also, rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure will cause even higher long-term emissions.
In short, a Faustian bargain of increasing aerosol pollution in the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning can mask some of the warming from carbon dioxide emissions, but scientists are aware of various climate feedback loops. Its long-term effect is not promising. The good news is that there is no need for a Faustian bargain. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could spur countries to boost the rollout of renewable energy. Some countries in the Asian region already mentioned that solar energy and electric vehicles will help reduce their country’s dependence on foreign fuel. We definitely need ambitious measures to decarbonise our society.

__________________________________________
The writer is a UK based academic who writes on science, philosophy and education