FAO economist warns of looming global food crisis

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked global supplies of fertiliser. With shipments having largely stopped since the war began, analysts predict that resulting higher prices and shortages could end up reducing crop yields by up to 30%, with a knock-on effect on the cost of produce.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Maximo Toreo, chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), said the situation was getting worse “because we are competing with … crop calendars”, noting that planting season in “some countries in Asia” had already passed.

Meanwhile, major exporters such as the US and Brazil could end up switching to crops that could “fix more nitrogen”, moving from wheat and maize to soybeans, he said.

Amid the spike in crude oil prices, some farmers could also move to biofuel production.

Toreo added that the price of wheat and soybeans was already starting to increase.

“This will evolve over the second half of the year, and we expect commodity prices to start to increase substantially in the next year,” he said, adding he expected “higher commodity prices and higher food inflation because the food that we consume not only is the commodity … but it’s also the energy price.”

“As we keep saying, it’s a crisis that is building up as we move. As the clock keeps ticking and the days keeps passing, the situation gets worse,” he said.