Revenue shortfall exceeds Tk1.04 lakh crore

A major shortfall in revenue collection has emerged during the first 10 months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, according to the latest provisional data released by the National Board of Revenue (NBR).
The latest figures up to April show that the overall revenue deficit during the July-April period exceeded Tk1.04 lakh crore, while revenue collection in April also failed to regain the expected momentum.
According to the NBR’s revenue collection statement for July-April FY26, the total revenue target for the first 10 months of the fiscal year was set at Tk4.54 lakh crore. 
Against this, actual collection stood at Tk3.50 lakh crore, leaving a shortfall of more than Tk1.04 lakh crore.
This means revenue collection remained nearly 23% below the target.
An analysis of the data shows that all three major sources of revenue – customs duty, value-added tax (VAT), and income tax – fell short of their respective targets, although pressure was most severe in the VAT sector.

VAT collection registers negative growth
During the July-April period, the VAT collection target was Tk2.04 lakh crore. However, actual collection amounted to Tk1.83 lakh crore, resulting in a shortfall of around Tk20,864 crore.
The most concerning aspect is that VAT collection growth slipped into negative territory. Compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, VAT revenue registered a negative growth of 3.71%.
Economists said reduced industrial production and lower consumer spending weakened domestic market transactions, directly affecting VAT collection performance.
In April alone, VAT collection stood at around Tk14,870 crore, showing only marginal growth compared to the same month of the previous fiscal year.

Customs revenue grows but misses target
In the first 10 months of FY26, the customs revenue target was Tk1.37 lakh crore. Against this, actual collection reached Tk1.27 lakh crore, leaving a gap of nearly Tk10,000 crore.
Although the sector recorded a growth of 7.45%, lower imports, persistent dollar shortages, and slower imports of industrial raw materials prevented customs revenue from meeting expectations.
In April alone, customs revenue collection amounted to approximately Tk10,159 crore, registering a 17.45% growth over the same month last year.

Income tax posts stronger growth
Compared to the other two revenue streams, income tax posted relatively stronger growth.
During the July-April period, the income tax collection target was Tk1.13 lakh crore, while actual collection stood at Tk1.40 lakh crore.
The sector recorded a growth of 14.66%, the highest among the three major sources of revenue. In April alone, income tax collection reached nearly Tk11,111 crore.
However, NBR officials said the growth was largely driven by advance tax payments from large taxpayers, withholding taxes, and taxes collected through banking transactions. 
They warned that sustaining this trend may become difficult unless overall economic activities improve.

April revenue collection rises slightly
In April alone, total revenue collection stood at Tk30,530.90 crore, compared to Tk28,560.90 crore in the same month of the previous fiscal year, reflecting an overall growth of 6.91%.
Despite the increase, the NBR remains far behind the pace required to meet the annual target. 
Officials and analysts believe the revenue authority would need exceptionally high monthly collections in the remaining two months of the fiscal year to achieve the target, a prospect they say appears unrealistic under the current economic conditions.

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