BNP leads with 66.3% support, Jamaat 11.9% : EASD survey

The findings were shared from the “Follow-Up National Survey on Public Opinion Ahead of the Upcoming Election (February 2026)” conducted by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD).

The survey also shows that 1.7% voters expressed support for NCP, while among other parties, the Jatiya Party received 4% support and independent candidates 2.6%.

EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Haider Talukder revealed the survey results at a press conference held at the Krishibid Institution Bangladesh (KIB) in the capital on Monday afternoon.

He said 68% of respondents supported Tarique Rahman as the next prime minister. In comparison, 14% supported Shafiqur Rahman and 2% supported Nahid Islam, while 16% did not express any opinion.

Regarding the referendum, 47.8% said they would vote “Yes” and 26.8% said “No.” About 11.1% said they were yet to decide, while 10.9% said they were not aware of the “July Charter.”

Among female respondents, 71.10% said they would vote for BNP and 15.20% for Jamaat-e-Islami, while 10.70% chose not to comment.

Among male respondents, 73.30% expressed support for BNP and 14.80% for Jamaat-e-Islami, while 7.90% did not want to comment.

Jamaat-led bloc to win 105 seats, BNP’s alliance 101: IILD survey

EASD said the nationwide survey was conducted from 18 January to 31 January 2026, covering all 300 parliamentary constituencies.

Opinions of a total of 41,500 people were collected using the “Kobo Toolbox” digital platform. Of the respondents, 26,560 were men, representing 64% and 14,922 were women, accounting for 36%.

Age-wise analysis shows that young voters aged 18–30 made up 37.2% of participants. Voters aged 31–50 accounted for 45.2%, including 27.5% aged 31–40 and 17.7% aged 41–50.

Based on respondents’ data, the survey predicts that a BNP-led alliance could win 208 seats, a Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance 46 seats, independent candidates 17 seats, the Jatiya Party three seats and other parties four seats.

About 22 seats could see close contests.

When asked what they expect from the party or alliance they support, 17% said they want less corruption, 14% want honesty, 5% want work on the July mass uprising, 5% said they support religious-based parties and 4% said they want action against the previous Awami League government.

Regional analysis shows the highest support for the BNP-led alliance in Chattogram at 76.8% and Sylhet at 75.6%.

Jamaat-e-Islami showed a strong position in Barishal and Khulna, with support of 17.8% and 18.6% respectively.

In Rangpur of the northern region, the Jatiya Party received support from 3% voters.

Profession-wise, the survey found that businessmen made up the largest group of respondents at 21.9%. Of them, 5% were large and medium traders, while 16.9% were small traders.

People involved in agriculture and rural labour accounted for 13.2%. Those working in household and informal sectors represented 19.1%, while students made up 14.5% of the respondents.

Among voters who supported the Awami League in the previous election, 80% said they plan to vote for BNP in the 2026 election. At the same time, 15% of banned Awami League voters said they would support Jamaat-e-Islami, while the remaining 5% said they would support other political parties.

Recommended: BNP pulled Bangladesh out of corruption stigma: Tarique