The geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal: What should Bangladesh do?

The Bay of Bengal – the name itself holds deep geopolitical significance. This blue expanse of South Asia has become the focal point not only for Bangladesh but for the entire region’s economic future, energy security and strategic influence. In recent years, the growing strategic engagement of major global and regional powers has increased the Bay of Bengal’s geopolitical importance.

In such a reality, the greatest challenge for Bangladesh is to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with these three superpowers while safeguarding its own economic and security interests. A single misstep could drag Bangladesh into the vortex of power competition, whereas maintaining the right balance could open horizons of cooperation and prosperity.

In the late nineteenth century, American naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan wrote “The Interest of America in Sea Power” (1897), observing that whichever nation controls the seas—whether through maritime trade or naval force – is positioned to control the world.

Today, 90% of global trade moves by sea.  According to the international media outlet The Diplomat, the proper extraction and utilisation of mineral resources in the Bay of Bengal could transform Bangladesh into a future energy superpower.

Data from the US Geological Survey indicates 8.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves in shallow waters, alongside 5 trillion cubic feet in Blocks 10 and 11. The Bay of Bengal is also home to the world’s second-largest canyon, the “Swatch of No Ground” – a safe breeding ground for rare marine life, including whales, dolphins and turtles, and a vital sanctuary for biodiversity.

This vast body of water holds abundant fishery resources, from which Bangladesh harvests nearly 600,000 tons of fish annually, accounting for roughly 18% of national production. Furthermore, the world’s longest unbroken sea beach in Cox’s Bazar, the Sundarbans mangrove forest and the coral island of St Martin’s lie along its shores.

By strategically utilising the mineral resources beneath the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh can ensure its energy security. Harvesting and processing marine resources can bolster food security and boost export earnings. Tourism can also reach new heights by leveraging the natural beauty of Cox’s Bazar, St Martin’s and the Sundarbans.

Additionally, a specific type of clay discovered at depths of 30 to 80 metres on the seabed serves as a raw material for cement production. The maritime scope of the Bay of Bengal extends far beyond Cox’s Bazar, stretching down past Sri Lanka. Nearly half of the world’s commercial and energy vessels use these sea lanes, carrying roughly $90 billion in trade for Bangladesh, transported by around 4,500 foreign ships.

In recent years, several countries have sought to strengthen their strategic and maritime presence in the Bay of Bengal, reflecting the waterway’s growing economic and geopolitical importance. As these interests increasingly intersect, Bangladesh may face a more complex regional environment, requiring careful assessment of the opportunities and challenges associated with deeper strategic engagement. Experts believe that agreeing indiscriminately to any proposal could also pose a threat to the country’s economy.

Given Bangladesh’s fragile economic standing, the country has sought $4 billion to $4.5 billion in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), an institution where the United States holds significant influence. Over-reliance on a specific foreign power could complicate securing these funds. We also have the examples of Sri Lanka and Pakistan before us. Therefore, Bangladesh needs to avoid excessive dependence on any single external partner and pursue a diversified approach that protects its economic and strategic interests.

There are allegations that some countries want to deepen their strategic engagement with Bangladesh by offering investment, connectivity and loans. The BNP government, under the leadership of Tarique Rahman, is now pursuing a balanced strategy regarding the Bay of Bengal. Analyses by various foreign media outlets have said that the Awami League government had lost that balance.

Bangladesh has been suffering from the severe Rohingya crisis since 2017. In this situation, any connectivity proposal concerning the region should be assessed not only for its economic potential but also for the associated security risks.

Foreign investment is extremely important for the country’s economic development and employment. However, investment must serve the national interest. Otherwise, the risks will increase. Therefore, keeping Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s words in mind, our foreign investment policy should be based on ‘Bangladesh First’. The national interest must be given the highest priority.

For the first time since 1971, Pakistan has indicated that it plans to expand the operational capabilities of its navy in the Bay of Bengal, including through submarines. The Pakistan Navy has said it intends to maintain a military presence in the Bay of Bengal using the new Hangor-class submarines acquired from China, including the PNS Hangor, highlighting the wider evolution of maritime capabilities in the region. This development has contributed to renewed geopolitical discussions over the changing security environment in waters close to Bangladesh and India.

Meanwhile, the United States maintains a longstanding military presence in the Indian Ocean region. Through frameworks such as the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Quad alliance, Washington aims to counterbalance the growing footprint of rival powers.

The relationship between Bangladesh and the United States is multifaceted and essential. The US is Bangladesh’s largest single-country export destination, particularly for the ready-made garment sector.

For Bangladesh, the Bay of Bengal is more than a geographical boundary—it is the lifeblood of the economy. Spanning roughly 118,000 square kilometres of maritime territory, it holds vast fisheries, natural gas, oil and sea trade potential. With nearly 80 per cent of global trade moving by sea, a significant share passes through the Bay of Bengal.

The primary task for Bangladesh is maintaining a balanced diplomatic posture, ensuring that relationships with one power do not undermine trust with another.

While the Bay of Bengal has emerged as a focal point of South Asian geopolitical rivalry, it also presents an opportunity. As India, China, the United States and other regional and global actors seek to deepen their engagement, Bangladesh’s strength lies in maintaining strategic autonomy, balanced relations and pragmatic diplomacy.