Next major oil supply shock could come from Saudi Arabia

The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Houthi has been shaping the main oil supply narrative of this week, with Yemen’s militias extending their strikes beyond infrastructure sites to the Shaybah oilfield, raising risks that Saudi Arabia would be forced to shut in some production across the country. 

The expiry of the November WTI contract saw a much-awaited narrowing of global crude spreads, with ICE Brent trending $5 per barrel above the US benchmark, at $108 per barrel. 

Asia refiners clash with Aramco over 2027 terms

The 2027 term contract talks of Saudi Aramco with Asian refiners are stalled over whether spot purchases made during the US-Iran war count toward 2026 obligations, with some buyers resisting additional 2027 volumes.

Fuel exports keep China’s refineries running

China’s September crude throughput rose 0.6% from August to 14 million b/d, supported by strong product exports that offset weak domestic demand, defying a 21% year-on-year drop in crude imports as implied inventories declined by 530,000 b/d.

White House unveils harvest-fuel relief for farmers

US President Donald Trump announced an $8 billion USDA fuel relief programme, offering one-time payments to farmers as the White House seeks to offset soaring diesel and fertiliser costs during the 2026 crop season, two weeks before the midterms. 

Eastern Libya approves Turkey maritime deal

Libya's eastern parliament unanimously approved the 2019 Turkey maritime agreement, revoking its 2020 rejection and diplomatic boycott of Ankara, with Ankara potentially becoming the leading upstream player even in the Haftar-controlled east.

India shelves strategic coal import mandate

The Indian government has deferred its proposal to mandate coal imports for domestic power plants despite many coal plants operating at critically low fuel levels, instead urging Coal India to raise output and railways to expedite domestic deliveries.

IEA ready to coordinate further oil stock releases

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol said members could coordinate further emergency oil releases, but insisted on prioritising the immediate release of 20 million barrels of diesel and admitting that 2027 sees little chance of returning to normalcy.

Mozambique shifts force-majeure costs to oil firms

Mozambique amended its upstream terms so that oil companies bear their own force-majeure costs, shielding the state from compensation following the 2021 al-Shabab terror attacks, following TotalEnergies' $4.5 billion claim.

Europe draws a green line across the Arctic

The EU reaffirmed its opposition to Arctic oil and gas development, countering US President Trump’s exploration claims as Brussels seeks to frame the US drilling push in Greenland as contradicting national legislation, maintaining a drilling ban in force.

Qatar pitches complete Lebanon power revival

Qatar proposed building two 825MW gas power plants in Lebanon within three years, backed by a 20-year LNG supply contract and the provision of floating regasification unit, building on Doha’s growing diplomatic influence in neighbouring Syria.

Nigeria targets strategic oil reserves in 2027

Nigeria plans to build up its strategic petroleum reserves from the current 20 days’ worth of consumption to 90 days, while targeting 45 days of product self-sufficiency by early 2027 as imports now only cover 25% of domestic fuel demand.

France secures Gulf diesel supplies

As French President Emmanuel Macron is touring the Middle East, France secured regional diesel supply commitments from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with each supplying around 100,000 tonnes monthly in October-November despite a largely closed Hormuz.

Source: oilprice.com