GDP growth inflated through data manipulation: Titumir

Prime Minister’s Adviser on Finance and Planning Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir alleged that manipulation of data in seven sectors inflated the reported GDP growth by 0.8 to 1.13 percentage points from the 2014-15 fiscal year, presenting an exaggerated picture of the country’s economic performance.
He said unusually high industrial production and value addition figures, particularly in cement, shipbuilding and other manufacturing subsectors, contributed to the overstatement.
Titumir made the remarks at a seminar organised by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in Agargaon on Saturday, where an expert committee presented findings on inconsistencies in official industrial production data.
Dr AK Enamul Haque, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), presented the committee’s draft report.
The review found that average real GDP growth increased from 6.27% during FY11 to FY14 to 7.39% during FY15 to FY19, with manufacturing accounting for around 41% of the 1.12 percentage-point rise.
The committee identified unusually high production estimates in cement and shipbuilding. 
Cement output reportedly grew by 61.6%, 51.7% and 45.9% in three consecutive years, while shipbuilding recorded growth of 242.4% in FY15 and 97.6% the following year.
The report highlighted weaknesses in calculating value addition, accounting for inventory changes and collecting industrial data.

Some estimates relied on data from a single establishment, including petroleum refining, which recorded 87.4% growth in FY16 before contracting by 50.3% the following year.

The review also found significant disparities between the readymade garment (RMG) sector and other industries.
Despite accounting for 34.84% of the industrial production index, average RMG growth declined from 13.55% to 8.69% between the two periods.
In contrast, 16 of the 22 manufacturing subsectors recorded higher growth. Growth in non-metallic minerals, including cement and brick production, surged from 2.32% to 25.67%, while textile growth rose from 0.05% to 8.14%.
Titumir said administrative and secondary data sources were more vulnerable to manipulation than BBS field surveys, noting that data collection in the RMG sector was comparatively transparent.
He stressed that GDP estimates should reflect actual economic conditions rather than serve political interests.
Earlier assessments by the World Bank and the 2024 White Paper Committee also raised questions about the reliability of Bangladesh’s official GDP estimates. 
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assigned the country’s national accounts framework a ‘C’ grade in 2024.
Titumir said the government was introducing digital data collection and geocoding to improve accuracy, alongside plans to verify industrial output figures against electricity and gas consumption.
The committee recommended greater institutional independence for the BBS, stronger data verification mechanisms and increased transparency in GDP calculation and revision procedures.