GP’s growth pivot faces a costly test

Grameenphone (GP), Bangladesh’s largest mobile network operator, is revamping its growth strategy as its traditional voice business slows, leaning into data services, bundled packages, and digital platforms to secure future revenue.
However, the pivot faces headwinds. GP faces major spectrum renewal payments this year, while profitability remains under pressure despite gains in subscribers and data consumption, according to a report by EBL Securities.
The analysis notes that GP is evolving beyond traditional connectivity to become an integrated digital operator. 
The company is actively expanding its ecosystem across lifestyle apps, digital financial services, digital content, and cybersecurity to diversify beyond basic voice and data plans.

Data gains as voice declines
Voice remained the largest revenue source in FY25, accounting for 51.4% of total revenue. Data contributed 27.4% and bundles 13.26%.
But the balance is shifting. The combined contribution of data and bundles rose from 25% in FY21 to 29% in FY25, according to EBL Securities.
Data revenue grew by around 6% annually during the period, while bundle revenue rose about 17%. Voice revenue, meanwhile, declined 2.2% annually.
The growing use of OTT platforms such as WhatsApp and Messenger is accelerating the shift. Average minutes of use per user declined by 5.4% annually between FY21 and FY25.

Network strength supports growth
Network strength is another pillar of the expansion strategy.
The operator holds 137.4 MHz of spectrum, compared with 124 MHz for Robi Axiata and 80 MHz for Banglalink, according to EBL Securities.
In the first quarter of 2026, GP acquired 10 MHz of 700 MHz spectrum for Tk2,170 crore. The additional bandwidth is expected to improve rural and indoor coverage, strengthen 4G services and support future 5G readiness.
With nearly 24,000 4G sites and coverage reaching 98.3% of the country’s population, the company has considerable scope to increase data usage and expand its customer base.

Clear lead over rivals
The market leader remains well ahead of its closest competitor, Robi Axiata, across subscribers, data users, network infrastructure and financial performance.
EBL Securities’ comparison based on May 2026 data showed 86.3 million subscribers for GP, compared with 57.4 million for Robi. Data users stood at 52.7 million, against 44.5 million for Robi.
Service ARPU was Tk152, slightly above Robi’s Tk147.
The network gap was more pronounced, with 23,909 4G sites compared with Robi’s 19,303.
In FY25, GP’s revenue reached Tk15,806 crore and net profit Tk2,958 crore, compared with Tk9,992 crore and Tk937 crore respectively for Robi.
GP also held 45.5% of the market among major mobile operators, followed by Robi with 30.8%, Banglalink 20% and Teletalk 3.6%.
The figures underline the operator’s scale advantage, but the challenge is to convert that dominance into stronger earnings as the market matures.

More users, weaker profits
The subscriber and data-user base continued to expand in the second quarter of 2026.
Total subscribers rose 2.1% to 8.63 crore, while active data users increased 7.1% to 5.27 crore. Data penetration exceeded 61%.
The abolition of the Tk300 flat tax on mobile SIM cards in the FY27 budget could further support subscriber growth by lowering the cost of connectivity, EBL Securities said.
Yet earnings moved in the opposite direction.
Net profit fell 13.8% year-on-year to Tk760 crore in the second quarter, with EPS at Tk5.60.
For the first half of 2026, net profit declined 6.16% to Tk1,420 crore, while EPS stood at Tk10.52. NAV per share was Tk41.50 as of 30 June.

Spectrum renewal poses major risk
The biggest near-term challenge is the renewal of existing spectrum.
Around 32.4 MHz, or 23.6% of GP’s total spectrum holding, is due to expire in 2026. This includes 900 MHz coverage spectrum and 1800 MHz and 2100 MHz capacity bands.
EBL Securities warned that renewal prices and payment terms could significantly affect capital expenditure, depreciation, finance costs, free cash flow and dividend payments.
The pressure comes after the operator already spent Tk2,170 crore on 700 MHz spectrum earlier this year.

Regulatory dispute adds uncertainty
The company also faces a legal dispute with the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission over an audit claim of Tk12,579.95 crore involving annual spectrum fees, VAT and revenue sharing.
According to EBL Securities, Tk2,000 crore has been paid in accordance with an Appellate Division order, along with another Tk2,392.20 crore to the National Board of Revenue.
The liability adds to uncertainty as further investment in network infrastructure and spectrum remains necessary.

Digital push becomes crucial
GP’s strong subscriber base, extensive network and market leadership provide a solid platform for its next phase of growth.
But with voice revenue declining, profits under pressure and major spectrum costs looming, the key challenge is to turn rising data usage and digital services into sustainable earnings without allowing network and regulatory costs to erode returns.